Space X has roughly doubled revenue from 1 to 2 to 4 to an expected 9 biliion for 2023 Estimated Space X revenue around 14 billion for 2024 NASA has a requested budget of 28/26 billion for 2024 and 2025

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2027 or later, followed by 2026 and 2025 are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of May 10, 2026).

For which year will Space X revenue be bigger than NASA budget?

@ZacharyAustin Can you resolve the 2024 and 2025 questions?

Official revenue is not released, but an article was just published citing a source that in 2025 it was 15 to 16 billion - smaller than NASA.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/spacex-generated-about-8-billion-profit-last-year-ahead-ipo-sources-say-2026-01-30/

What happens at the later dates? If this is not true for 2024-2026, does it automatically resolve to "2027 or later"?

@EvanDaniel Yes thats right!

@ZacharyAustin So this will likely resolve sometime early to mid 2027 when we have the SpaceX revenue numbers?

@EvanDaniel Exactly, do you have a suggestion for data source?

@ZacharyAustin No. Not a thing I track closely. If it were me, I would start by chasing down where Wikipedia got their current numbers.

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