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For which year will Space X revenue be bigger than NASA budget?
18
Ṁ260Ṁ3k
resolved Oct 27
100%97%
2026
0.2%
2024
0.4%
2025
2%
2027 or later

Space X has roughly doubled revenue from 1 to 2 to 4 to an expected 9 biliion for 2023

Estimated Space X revenue around 14 billion for 2024

NASA has a requested budget of 28/26 billion for 2024 and 2025

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https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/content_files/SpaceX-Reports-Third-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf
9 months revenue in Q3 financials was $27.08 Bn and it is hard to get negative revenue for 4th Q (especially when they have already had 7 external launches in Q4, starlink is still operating etc.)

NASA budget FY 2025 $24.8 Bn
FY2026 $24.4 Bn

So it can resolve to 2026. @ZacharyAustin @mods inactive creator

@ZacharyAustin Can you resolve the 2024 and 2025 questions?

Official revenue is not released, but an article was just published citing a source that in 2025 it was 15 to 16 billion - smaller than NASA.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/spacex-generated-about-8-billion-profit-last-year-ahead-ipo-sources-say-2026-01-30/

What happens at the later dates? If this is not true for 2024-2026, does it automatically resolve to "2027 or later"?

@EvanDaniel Yes thats right!

@ZacharyAustin So this will likely resolve sometime early to mid 2027 when we have the SpaceX revenue numbers?

@EvanDaniel Exactly, do you have a suggestion for data source?

@ZacharyAustin No. Not a thing I track closely. If it were me, I would start by chasing down where Wikipedia got their current numbers.