Will my relative be scammed out of more than $5,000 USD as part of this romance scam in the next year?
resolved Feb 1

This prediction market is about the ex-partner of one of my relatives, let's call him Adam. He is in contact with a supposed woman, let's call her Olga. She claims to be from Russia, she has never been able to voice or video call him though. Adam and Olga exchange emails daily.

  • Adam started corresponding with Olga about six months ago.

  • About a month later, Adam paid her ~$300 USD for a plane ticket to come to the UK (where Adam lives) but later claimed that there was a problem with her visa and she couldn't come.

  • We have googled the text of Olga's emails and found the same emails online as part of scams. We have shown Adam the emails but Adam still seems to think that Olga is a real woman writing emails of her own accord.

  • And most importantly, right now, Adam is in the process of selling a house for ~$600000 USD.

(All numbers very approximate.)

This market resolves YES if I find out that Adam sends Olga $5000 USD or more by market close. This market resolves NO otherwise.

Get แน€1,000 play money

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predicted NO

Any updates on the Olga situation? Feels like this will mainly be reliant on your ability to get info by market close.

predicted YES

@Tarl I'm probably going to have to resolve it N/A

predicted NO

@ZZZZZZ that's clearly contradictory to the description

"This market resolves YES if I find out that Adam sends Olga $5000 USD or more by market close. This market resolves NO otherwise."

predicted YES

@Tarl ah, my mistake, it will resolve according to the description

bought แน€100 NO from 38% to 30%

@ZZZZZZ Is he still talking with Olga?

predicted YES

@RobertCousineau Honestly, I don't know. It may be difficult to current resolve these markets because this relative is actually my step-grandfather and since he broke up with my grandmother, it may be difficult to get information from him.

How much effort has been put into convincing Adam that this is a scam? Was was their response?

predicted YES

@IsaacKing He said that they had such a connection that it was impossible that she was fake, even though we showed him that the same emails she sent him were on the internet and the images were from a famous model.

@ZZZZZZ Your description of Adam makes them sound so dumb that I'm starting to wonder whether this market is itself a scam and you've actually just made them up.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing He is very dumb. He also voted for Brexit so that he could see the UK fall into chaos so that England would gain independence.