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There is this, too: https://x.com/tobyphln/status/1720515470032245091?s=46&t=CYEWiZ5YuQhLnjUiOIjuyw
@Yves They themselves called it a launch. This is like the Pink iMac debate. The launch has taken place just as much as there was an announcement of a pink iMac
What made it a launch:
announcement the day prior
Marginal increase in product existing (we didn’t know anything before, we knew it is an LLM after Musks tweets), the additional blog post now does not change much on that scale
Additional indicators that this market would resolve with Musks launch:
Me clarifying that „release to a select few“ constitutes a launch
the market being at 95-98% right before resolution
To generate evidence of „release to a select few“ is difficult so the tweet itself carried some weight
@Yves there are a lot of people getting really fired up about this market. Basically, people ended up deciding to report it to @SirSalty because they are upset. Whether they have a case or not, who knows.
I'm not going to unresolve it at this time and you've clearly had plenty of time to share your own opinion that this has met the criteria for resolution.
Going forward, I highly recommend you add some additional details in the description of your market so participants have a better idea what they are betting on.
For everyone else in the comments -- there is some chance that the team will re-open this market in the days to come. I'm sure the Manifold team will weigh in!
Elon tweeted yesterday "Tomorrow, @xAI will release its first AI to a select group. "
I asked the creator:
Does releasing ai to "a select few" count as "releasing a product"?
The creator replied "yes"
At the time this was the 2nd comment ever places on this market.
If the creator had replied no I would have bet down the market. (As we all know, it could be a very long time before there is a public release).
But he replied yes and so I bet yes from 93% to 96% on the basis that it would very likely be released "to a select few".
I don't think it's the most intuitive interpretation of the question, but as the market creator Yves gets to decide the resolution criteria. And he has now correctly resolved in line with his criteria.
If the market is reopened then you're forcing Yves to contradict the criteria he publically told me and that I relied on when making my bet.
It'd be one thing if Elon had actually released it to a select group of outside users, but if he had we'd have heard about it. I think resolving this YES on a launch to a select group of outside users is, arguably, within creator discretion, even if I don't think it's quite right. YES before he's actually released it to any outside users isn't! Elon's tweets about his future behavior are not, in general, reliable evidence for his future behavior, e.g. 'funding secured'
@jacksonpolack I agree that we need to see evidence of a "select few" users having access.
I wouldn't agree that it needs to be "outside" users though.
Ok enough discussion has happened. I think this was misresolved. Creator could/should unresolve now and re-resolve when the launch happens.
Edit: the creator has blocked me now.
Yves, do you agree that 90%+ of the tech-literate population would not consider this a launch? Can you find anyone else who agrees with this interpretation?
Prediction markets exist to predict future events. To be able to do so, you need to have a market title and description that accurately convey the condition we're predicting. People need to come across your market, interpret the resolution criteria, and guess whether the event in question will happen or not! If you create a market that means one thing to you but another thing to everyone else, that's your mistake, not theirs.
@Yves has this product started a rollout to public users yet? are these select few users non-employees?
@firstuserhere It’s a launch, that is what counts. It does not matter to whom it was released. It is a product and it was launched today. The product exists. There is a product. The announcement with screenshots is the launch.
@Yves When we see a trailer for a movie or game, is that movie or game launched? When people watch a test screening of a movie or playtest a pre-alpha of a game are those launched?
Movies are not comparable. Also what counts is „marginal change in product existence“. A launch was announced yesterday and done today. The number of users it’s available does not matter. The number of users a product has does not change its marginal level of existence. A product can exist without users. Also, you do not know about „anyone“.
@Yves A product existing doesn't imply that it was launched. Typically products exist within the company for a long time before launch.
@firstuserhere But it doesn’t only exist within the company, otherwise I, not an employee of the company, would not know what it is, what it does or anything about it.
@Yves When a company announces a product, other people not in the company know about it, yet it is not yet launched. That is literally what an announcement is. See my examples with trailers and testing a game or other piece of software. As far as I can tell this is a flat out mis-resolved market.
Another example: We all know about Gemini. It was announced and Google has talked about it plenty. It is not yet launched.
EDIT: The creator has blocked me for this comment. I suggest reviewing the market in question.
@Yves the difference is supposedly that you can't be certain Gemini exists without trusting Google's word a lot, but Elon couldn't lie?