Will Tesla produce more than 1500 Cybertrucks in 2023?
Dec 31
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ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

Does this resolve by the number in production and deliveries number published ~2 January? If it is not shown there do we wait for earnings call to see what is said then?

I also wish to checking you aren't going to use VIN numbers. Recently reported these are up to over 1200, but numbers 600-799 are thought to be release candidates and many of these may have been used for testing, scrapped or otherwise not finished to saleable condition. So a VIN number over 1500 wouldn't mean that 1500 had been fully and completely produced to saleable condition and I don't think this should be used for resolution. But I still want to check I am thinking sensibly on this and a VIN number over 1500 will not be used to resolve this question as yes.

moe avatar
Moebought Ṁ100 of NO

I'm predicting negative resolution based on two factors:

  1. Tesla's 10Q filing with the SEC, as of 2023-09-31, says the Cybertruck is in "pilot production" same as the Tesla semi. The previous 10Q, from 2023-06-30, reports the production status as "tooling", meaning that no production had started. Three months is an awfully short period of time to manufacture the first 1500 trucks. (Aside: statements to the SEC have to be very conservative and are reviewed by auditors, so it's unlikely TSLA would exaggerate here.)

  2. The first Model 3 was delivered in 2017 Q3, and the 1500th car was not delivered until 2018 Q1. At a substantially higher MSRP and complexity, I think the Cybertruck production and delivery will be even more challenging.

cowgoesmoo avatar
cowgoesmoo bought Ṁ100 NO at 20%
MasayaInoue avatar
Masaya Inouebought Ṁ100 of YES

According to Tesla's financial results and shareholders letter for the third quarter of 2023, it announced that Tesla have already deployed production capacity for 125,000 trucks per year. And it will be scheduled to occur the delivery event will happen on November 30th. According to Tesla's financial results and shareholders letter for the third quarter of 2023, it announced that Tesla have already deployed production capacity for 125,000 trucks per year. And it will be scheduled to occur the delivery event will happen on November 30th. Despite the delay in release and the fact that over two million Cybertruck reservations have already been made, we are sure that by the end of year, a significant portion of over 1500 will have their Cybertrucks ready for pickup.




VijayankSharma avatar
Vijayank Sharmabought Ṁ30 of YES

YES Tesla will produce more than 1500 Cybertrucks by the end of 2023

According to electrek website Tesla announces cybertruck deliveries in november , claims with 125000 production capacity. At gigafactory tesla will began production of cybertruck will remain on track for initials deliveries this year

therefore, it is unlikely that Tesla will produce any Cybertrucks before the end of 2023.

Link -: https://electrek.co/2023/10/18/tesla-cybertruck-deliveries-november-production-capacity/

Unknown user avatar
Unknown user avatar
2 traders bought Ṁ202 YES
mdsalman avatar
md salman bought Ṁ10 NO from 30% to 29%
dittopoop avatar
dittopooppredicts NO

@VijayankSharma Imagine actually believing these numbers

Yves avatar
Yves bought Ṁ50 YES from 26% to 28%
mdsalman avatar
md salmanbought Ṁ10 of NO

@VijayankSharma It's almost like Elon Musk is incapable of telling the truth. Not only is the Model Y not tracking to be 'the best selling car on Earth, there's a reason other car makers don't build vehicles like the Cybertruck, namely it's not only designed like someone literally took a rectangle and put wheels ..."Cybertruck" makes the Pontiac Aztec look really good. The saving grace of the Aztec though was that it was sold by a actual car company AND you didn't have to mortgage your house to buy one. Elon strikes again. Proving that some people will believe ANYTHING !

case avatar
casebought Ṁ50 of NO

By my estimation, Tesla has produced approximately 300 Cybertrucks and is on track to produce 500-700 by years end. Even with an increase in speed in their low-production line they will not be able to manufacture 1000+ vehicles in the next 2 months. Volume production does not start until 2024.

There have been several reports that tesla has been producing 5-10 cybertrucks a day at Giga Texas since the beginning of August. https://www.torquenews.com/11826/breaking-elon-musk-says-he-drove-performance-cybertruck-its-next-level-herere-rumored-specs. This matches with the sightings of cybertrucks over time matching their VINs.

Rough Timeline (with totals over time):

July 15th - Tesla produces Fist Cybertruck at Giga Texas https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1680121747910148099 (Beta: 1)

August 3rd - Beta 535 car spotted in NZ https://twitter.com/greggertruck/status/1687156948838531072 (Beta: ≥35)

August - Started producing 5-10 a day https://www.torquenews.com/11826/breaking-elon-musk-says-he-drove-performance-cybertruck-its-next-level-herere-rumored-specs

August 14th: - RC1 624 spotted https://twitter.com/FSDMaestro/status/1691278640485666816 (Beta: ≥35, RC1 ≥24)

August 21st -RC1 647 spotted https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/tracking-thread-for-cybertruck-vin-numbers-decoded.8989/#post-171331 (Beta: ≥35, RC1 ≥47)

August 22nd - RC1 674 spotted https://twitter.com/LizzyB_MD/status/1694195808160117177 (Beta: ≥35, RC1 ≥74)

Sept 4th - RC1 706 spotted https://twitter.com/greggertruck/status/1698849537572692393 (Beta: ≥35, RC1 ≥ 106)

Sept 5 - RC1 724 spotted https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/tracking-thread-for-cybertruck-vin-numbers-decoded.8989/page-2#post-177332 (Beta: ≥35, RC1 ≥ 124)

October 21st - RC2 844 spotted https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/%F0%9F%A4%B3-daily-photos-videos-random-cybertruck-sightings-spottings-thread.9549/#post-187878 (Beta: ≥35, RC1 ≥ 124, RC2 ≥ 44)

October 25th - RC2 882 spotted https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/%F0%9F%A4%B3-daily-photos-videos-random-cybertruck-sightings-spottings-thread.9549/page-3#post-189296 (Beta: ≥35, RC1 ≥ 124, RC2 ≥ 82)

November - Production vehicles start in advance of Nov 30th delivery event.

A great breakdown of Tesla VIN numbering for Cybertrucks: https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/whats-the-current-cybertruck-production-rate.9262/#post-177760

dittopoop avatar
dittopoopbought Ṁ100 of NO

@case thank you for these numbers. I can't believe this market was trading at 60% at one point. It seems preposterous that Tesla could start mass production of an entirely new model of vehicles in such a short time.

CarlosMorales avatar
Carlos Moralesbought Ṁ35 of NO

I would say Tesla won´t reach the number of more than 1,500 because if we compare their competiror (Rivian R1T), the first year they released the R1T (Q3 2021) had a production of 1,015 and a delivery of 920.

Rivian had more than 3 months to reach that number, and the release date of the price is at November 30th. This means Tesla has to deliver more than 1,500 trucks just in one month, while their competitors delivered 920 in more time.

Yes, the reservations for the Cybertrucks have reached more than 2 million, but does Tesla really have the capacity to produce that amount of cars by the end of 2023? If we see the last financial results, it can be seen that they don´t mention the production rate for Tesla Cybertruck, it only shows the current models of Model S/X and Model 3/Y.


Rivian production vs delivery numbers: https://insideevs.com/news/559907/rivian-production-delivery-numbers-2021/

Tesla Cybertruck reservations: https://insideevs.com/news/687142/tesla-cybertruck-2-million-reservations-crowdsourced-data/

Tesla Production Q3 2023: https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023#:~:text=Our%202023%20volume%20target%20of%20around%201.8%20million%20vehicles%20remains%20unchanged.&text=Tesla%20will%20post%20its%20financial,Wednesday%2C%20October%2018%2C%202023.

Denial avatar
Denialbought Ṁ200 of YES

@CarlosMorales Rivian was bootstraping a new company at the moment, and Tesla is well stablished and has huge infrastructure at this moment. There was also a semiconductor crysis on 2021, which caused production issues both for Rivian and Tesla.

I don't know for sure if Tesla can achieve 1500 units for this year (although I changed my bet after knowing they start delivering this month), but I don't think this comparison is a good reason to bet NO.

JoseEduardoBolanoss avatar
Jose Eduardo Bolanossbought Ṁ40 of NO

According to Reuters, Tesla has the capacity to produce more than 125,000 cybertrucks annually. The highest they have predicted is 250,000 by the end of 2025. EV demand has also been going down due to higher interest rates on loans. Even Elon Musk said that the company could face "enormous challenges in ramping up production and making it cash flow positive''. It is unlikely that Tesla will deliver the 1,500 trucks by the end of the year, but it looks like the demand for cybertrucks is healthy with over a million reservations already made.

Elon Musk said "we dug our own grave with Cybertruck". Tesla's commitment to start delivery on Q3 was not accomplished and the uncertainty remains high. The lack of clarity in the numbers Tesla provides is conercning and difficult to land on a specific range by the end of the year. Based on production issues and delivery delays, it is unlikely that Tesla will deliver the 1,500 by the end of the year.



Yves avatar
Yvesbought Ṁ6 of YES

@JoseEduardoBolanoss 1500, not 150.000

NiklasWiklander avatar
Niklas Wiklanderpredicts NO

@JoseEduardoBolanoss A million reservations you say, but how many of those will actually want to go through with the deal? There's no way to tell. For example, I know a guy who made a reservation day 1. He's in Europe = no car for him. Probably several hundred thousand reservations are from places where the cybertruck will not be available.

"Some person was willing to put in $100 for something that was promised to be great" is a very poor way of measuring actual demand for the actual product at the actual price.

Denial avatar
Denialpredicts YES

@NiklasWiklander Yes, but 1500 units over 2M reservations is 0.075% of their reservations. These numbers are already pretty conservative and it's safe to assume that not virtually everyone who reserved the Cybertruck (and paid 100$ in the process) will ditch it.

Even if the car turns out to be a massive dissappointment (like, huge PR nightmare level of disappointment) it's unlikely such a scandal starts before they get to deliver 1500 units.

I would be surprised if the number of reservations that go through (in the long term) is lower than 40% or so.

JohnpaulNnaji avatar
Johnpaul Nnajibought Ṁ10 of YES

In Q2, Tesla produced approximately 480000, in 2019 global sales 450000, and we can find the spread of production over time for different years clustering around that mean for its other car models. With this it almost certain that the Cybertruck will exceed 1500 deliveries by November 30. With already over 2m reservation of Cybertruck and delay in releasing and quite confident that come November 30 a great number >1500 will have their Cybertruck ready for pick up.

KevinBlaw avatar
Kevin Blawd

Where do we go to see the basis for resolution / confirmation?