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https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1729591119699124560

"Cybertruck deliveries start on Thursday"

Conclusive evidence there are none before 30 Nov?

There are plenty of employees with Cybertrucks, so this has already come to pass.

@quantizor agree with this - do you have a post or article to support? I saw some posts of people seeing it but I can't find an article confirming someone has possession?

bought yes just in case 😅

@shankypanky Lots of posts like this https://x.com/chriskong118/status/1719190406473347436?s=46&t=Vda1DcPtolfCiBDkgrJwPA

I suspect employees are under NDA so they can't explicitly say they own one until after the delivery event.

@quantizor yeah there are lots of posts about seeing them around - I suspect this market can't resolve until at least a few days after the event because of the NDA, particularly as reports say they're only delivering 10 on launch day.

@shankypanky Employees having them can be just for testing. I would think even if the employee is going to buy the cybertruck they have, these won't have completed paperwork so that the delivery event is the first sales. Tesla's policy is not to recognise as deliveries until it is both delivered and the paperwork is complete. So employees having a Tesla is likely to be on a "for testing purposes" basis rather than being a sales delivery at least until the delivery event perhaps even until Jan 2024.

@ChristopherRandles I doubt Tesla would allow them to bring them home for testing.

@quantizor I think they might if the employees are saying they will buy it but Tesla doesn't want to complete the paperwork yet but does want them to be testing them in real life situations rather than planned tests. but ymmv

@ChristopherRandles It doesn't make sense if you reason it out. Employees are under NDA. If they were testing the vehicles, they would need to be brought back to HQ or an appropriate depot for post-test analysis.

Tesla would never let employees just take one home without paperwork of ownership. It's nonsensical.

@quantizor The employee won't have ownership paperwork. This doesn't mean there won't be paperwork saying Tesla still retains ownership of this vehicle and the employee is being allowed use of it for testing purposes until such time as a sale is complete. I think that is plausible and isn't a sales delivery.

The sort of testing I am talking about here is being able to ask the employee what it is like for everyday use and getting answers like: Its great but sometime I find myself wishing the coffee cup holder was 3 inches further forward.

Before? Or on or before? Does a Nov 30 delivery resolve Yes?

@shankypanky No

This is now more of a debate on how I will resolve this rather than a bet on cybertruck deliveries.

The original meaning was: “before November ends”, but it’s too Ambiguous and worded differently.

What about the closing date (December 2nd)?

Please present your arguments!

@Yves talking my own book here but I don't think this is a case where the market should resolve to how the question was meant instead of how it was worded.

Cases where I think it would be correct to resolve to the spirit of the question would be stuff like:

• Tesla spins off the Cybertruck line and so it's technically not delivered by Tesla

• the Cybertruck gets renamed so it's technically not a Cybertruck that is delivered

But November not ending before its last day isn't some wildcard nobody would have thought of.

Using the closing date is right out as there are sometimes good reasons to have the market close after the question cut off date. So it should only be used as cut off date when specified as such by the title or description.

It seems unlikely to happen before 11/30/2023, since the delivery event is scheduled for that day: https://twitter.com/cybertruck/status/1714740805422715301