This market will resolve to the announced Series I bond Semi-Annual Inflation Rate, as decided by the US Treasury on May 1, 2023.
An example of an announcement, this one from a year ago.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/news/2022/release-05-02-rates/
Here are historical rates and background.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/files/savings-bonds/i-bond-rate-chart.pdf
More on historical rate / trends
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1 | |
| 2 | Ṁ0 |
Note: I did resolve to 3.38, but it must auto round to tenth decimal.
I'll ping the Manifold discord to see if we can get this more fully specified.
Now that the inflation number is in, all that remains for I-Bond watchers is https://manifold.markets/YourTreasuryDirect/what-fixed-rate-will-the-us-treasur?r=WW91clRyZWFzdXJ5RGlyZWN0 🍿🍿🍿
Related market for the fixed rate: https://manifold.markets/YourTreasuryDirect/what-fixed-rate-will-the-us-treasur?r=WW91clRyZWFzdXJ5RGlyZWN0