What fixed rate will the US Treasury announce for Series I bonds on May 1, 2023?
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resolved Apr 28
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This market will resolve to the announced Series I bond Fixed Rate, as decided by the US Treasury on May 1, 2023.

An example of an announcement, this one from a year ago.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/news/2022/release-05-02-rates/

Here are historical rates and background.

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/files/savings-bonds/i-bond-rate-chart.pdf

More on historical rate / trends

https://www.yourtreasurydirect.com/rates

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Surprise early numbers from Treasury: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/

@SuperTaxGenius nice market! I wanted to break down into the fixed / inflation rate because that changes attractiveness beyond the next 6 months (Fixed rate stays for 30 year duration, inflation rate changes with CPI)

Initialized to 0.8% based on guesswork from TipsWatch blog:

"I think the fixed rate is heading higher, possibly to around 0.6% on the low end and 1.0% on the high end. Letโ€™s just say โ€“er, guess โ€” 0.8%."

https://tipswatch.com/2023/03/09/i-bonds-lets-handicap-the-may-fixed-rate-reset/