This market will resolve to the announced Series I bond Fixed Rate, as decided by the US Treasury on May 1, 2023.
An example of an announcement, this one from a year ago.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/news/2022/release-05-02-rates/
Here are historical rates and background.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/i-bonds-interest-rates/
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/files/savings-bonds/i-bond-rate-chart.pdf
More on historical rate / trends
1,000
3.00@SuperTaxGenius nice market! I wanted to break down into the fixed / inflation rate because that changes attractiveness beyond the next 6 months (Fixed rate stays for 30 year duration, inflation rate changes with CPI)
Related market for the announced inflation rate: https://manifold.markets/YourTreasuryDirect/what-semiannual-inflation-rate-will?r=WW91clRyZWFzdXJ5RGlyZWN0
Initialized to 0.8% based on guesswork from TipsWatch blog:
"I think the fixed rate is heading higher, possibly to around 0.6% on the low end and 1.0% on the high end. Let’s just say –er, guess — 0.8%."
https://tipswatch.com/2023/03/09/i-bonds-lets-handicap-the-may-fixed-rate-reset/