On 10/7, Hamas attacked Israel, Israel went on a counteroffensive. Will there be large-scale riots in mixed cities within Israel (excluding West Bank) as a result?
Notes:
"Large scale" = comparable to the 2021 riots in Lod, Ramla, etc, as judged by me based on Israeli news publications.
Citizens - if there are riots in an Arab village and Israeli police confronts the rioters, is not sufficient for resolving YES. I am interested in civil-war-like events. Non-police Jews going to an Arab village to cause chaos does count, will depend on severity.
As a result - I will be very liberal in my interpretation. If riots happen during Israeli operation in Gaza (including aerial bombings), will resolve YES. If riots happen very shortly after a ceasefire but I still think it's due to the war, will resolve YES (if happens within a ~week of a ceasefire, I will probably attribute it to the war).
The market will remain open as long as the war continues. Will resolve NO after the war ends and a sufficient time has passed for me to be sure that if riots will happen, won't be related to the war.
I will not bet on this market. Since resolution is somewhat subjective, I am willing to be persuaded by discussion in the comments. If something is unclear, ask away.