Will Caltrain electrification finish on schedule in 2024?

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resolved Dec 23

Resolved

YES

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Currently Caltrain electric trains are anticipated to start service in late-2024. The original timeline projected a 2021 opening, which was subsequently postponed to 2022, and now 2024. Resolves YES if I can ride an electric train on regular passenger service by December 31, 2024.

Edited to add context.

Changed close to Dec 31 to reduce ambiguity.

Market context

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BART merger market:

https://manifold.markets/IsaacLiu/bartcaltrain-merger-by-2028

bought Ṁ1,500 YES

Electric trains are live! https://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/caltrain-first-public-electric-rides-19621688.php

Electric trains have started running under their own power https://www.caltrain.com/news/electric-trains-running-caltrain-corridor-first-time-160-year-history

Electric Trains Running on Caltrain Corridor for the First Time in 160 Year History | Caltrain

The electrification of Caltrain has reached another major milestone as electric trains operated under power from the overhead contact system (OCS) for the first time.

predictedYES

They’re very set on finishing in 2024 https://www.caltrain.com/february-2023-service-change?active_tab=service_alerts_tab

Made a question for whether it'll finish by 2025:

20% for infrastructure project in California to finish on time feels too much. I haven't actually checked base rates here.

@tb It was originally scheduled to be completed in 2021, then 2022. 2024 is the current timeline.

@Yoav “On schedule” is somewhat misleading

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