Background Recent wildfires in Los Angeles have prompted investigations into their cause. While the fires have caused significant damage and evacuations, officials are currently conducting investigations to determine the origin. Natural factors such as powerful winds and dry conditions have been noted as contributing factors to the fires' spread.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

• Official investigators (FBI, LAPD, Fire Department, or other relevant authorities) conclude that the fires were deliberately set as part of a terrorist attack

• A terrorist organization claims responsibility AND this claim is verified by relevant authorities

This market will resolve NO if:

• Investigators determine the cause was not terrorism-related (e.g., natural causes, accidents, non-terrorist arson)

• The investigation concludes without finding evidence of terrorist involvement

• No conclusion is reached by January 1, 2026

For resolution purposes, "terrorist attack" is defined as an act of arson committed with political, religious, or ideological motivations by an individual or group classified as terrorists by the U.S. government.

Considerations

• Investigations into the causes of wildfires can take months or even years to complete

• Initial reports and speculation about fire causes often prove incorrect as investigations progress

• Claims of responsibility by terrorist organizations must be verified by authorities to count for resolution purposes

https://www.dni.gov/files/NCTC/documents/jcat/firstresponderstoolbox/124s_-_Mitigating_the_Threat_of_Terrorist-Initiated_Arson_Attacks_on_Wildland-Urban_Interface_Areas.pdf