https://polymarket.com/event/will-kabuto-1st-edition-card-hit-100-by-december-31/will-kabuto-1st-edition-card-hit-100-by-december-31?tid=1765685376137

https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/44452?Language=English&Printing=1st+Edition&Condition=Near+Mint

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a 1st Edition Kabuto card (Pokémon Fossil #50/62) in Near Mint condition reaches or exceeds $100 on TCGPlayer by December 31, 2025. Resolution is based on the listed market price for Near Mint raw (ungraded) cards on TCGPlayer at market close on December 31, 2025. If the card is delisted or the condition category is removed, the market resolves N/A.

Background

First Edition Kabuto's price climbed 1,397% between August and December 2025, from around $2.50 to over 38 bucks. This surge is driven by a collector known as "Kabuto King" who has collected 1,748 copies of this (officially) Common Pokémon card since joining X in August 2025. The going rate for an NM card is $37.43 as of mid-December. Graded copies have seen even more dramatic increases, with four PSA 10 copies selling for four-digit price tags: $1,025, $1,045, $1,199 and $1,225.

Considerations

The card's value is heavily dependent on Kabuto King's continued acquisition efforts and market perception of scarcity. The reason first edition Kabuto has become so valuable is because all of a sudden, there's one collector who owns the lion's share of them. It has become a scarce card purely because more than 1,700 of them are now all in one place. As soon as that's not the case anymore, they are no longer worth as much. Any significant change in collector sentiment or supply dynamics could impact the trajectory toward $100.

• Update 2025-12-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated there are two possible interpretations for resolution:

  • The market could resolve YES because the price hit $100 on December 16, 2025

  • The market could resolve based on the price on December 31, 2025 (as stated in the original criteria)

The creator is soliciting arguments from traders before making a final resolution decision.

• Update 2025-12-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the card hit $100 or over on any single day before December 31, 2025 (not just the price on December 31st itself). This matches the Polymarket resolution criteria.