Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?
January 31, 2026
June 30, 2026
December 31, 2026
Market Context
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with any alleged fake daycare facility in Minnesota, by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
#### Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if any individual is formally charged with a crime related to daycare fraud in Minnesota by the specified date. Charges must be filed by a state or federal prosecutor and documented in public court records. The market resolves NO if no charges are filed by the deadline.
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Background
Allegations of misuse in Minnesota's child-care system are fueling political fallout and federal investigations with billions in public dollars at stake. A center allegedly received $1.9 million through Minnesota's Child Care Assistance Program in 2025, in addition to funding from prior years. U.S. Attorney Joseph Thompson has said that when investigations of the overall CCAP and Minnesota state programs are complete, the fraud could exceed $1 billion. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security say they are "surging" to investigate fraud in Minnesota, including at child care centers.
Considerations
State officials said the centers Shirley checked out had been inspected in the last six months and no evidence of fraud was discovered. This suggests that while investigations are active and resources are being deployed, formal criminal charges have not yet been filed despite the high-profile nature of the allegations and the scale of suspected fraud.
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