There was suspicious activity on https://manifold.markets/Yev/conditional-on-this-market-having-a.
After the market's condition was already satisfied and the market was guaranteed to resolve YES, @UniquelyConditional bought M$1000 NO. Then 5 seconds later @MatthewMorgan bought M$200 YES. After 5 more seconds, @ChrisDosen bought M$1000 YES. Finally, 8 seconds after that UC bought $10 more NO (using the daily bonus they earned from their first trade).
As a result of this, MM earned M$492 and CD earned M$93. I'm not entirely sure where the remaining M$415 went.
Both UC and CD created their accounts today, while MM created theirs 5 days ago.
UC's trade could be a violation of community guidelines:
Creating multiple accounts is permitted. However, action could be taken by Manifold if:
Abusing referral, signup bonuses, or daily streaks to funnel mana to your main account.
This market resolves YES if a mod says all 3 users had the same IP address.
This market resolves NO if a mod says some of them had different IP addresses.
This market resolves N/A if neither of those happen within a week.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ101 | |
| 2 | Ṁ80 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 |
@UniquelyConditional @MatthewMorgan and @Anacount have different IP addresses and devices (during account creation)
@RJAntonello That theory still doesn't account for the remaining $415 that is missing in action. That missing money is the hinge upon which this whole case turns. I'm buying YES to hedge again the risk of my account being banned.
@MatthewMorgan That doesn't make any sense. Either the traders in question are unique or they are conditional. If their uniqueness is conditional on their status as traders, then it cannot be the case that, conditioned on their uniqueness, they are all fans of the same IP man. With this in mind, I don't understand how anyone could in their right mind vote yes on no, when, in fact, no is not the yes we yes it is. Thus, I am betting everything on the status quo.
@Sinclair The crazy thing is these images predate stable diffusion; these are all handmade one way or another. Here's a cake to celebrate a happy resolution to the market!
