Background

Reserve-currency status really shows up in two places:

1. What central banks hold - Every quarter the
   IMF publishes a table called COFER that says what share of the world's reported foreign-exchange reserves are in U.S. dollars.

2. What exporters put on invoices - Researchers track the currency written on international goods-trade contracts (for example, soybeans sold from Brazil to Korea).

Right now the dollar is still above half on both measures, but it has been inching down. Your bet is on which comes first: central banks or global traders pushing the dollar's share under 50%.

Resolution Criteria

The market settles YES the moment both of these events happen before 1 Jan 2040:

1. IMF COFER release shows the USD share of allocated reserves below 50%.

2. The latest public update of the global trade-invoice dataset from IMF shows the USD share of world goods-trade invoices below 50%.