Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2050?
Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2050?
23
340Ṁ2809
2050
27%
chance

Explanation:

Effectively Cure in this context means that you will not die from diseases or aging.

Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves as YES if CDC WONDER database shows both of the following for the United States before January 1, 2050:

  1. Total annual mortality rate drops to 0.05% or below

  2. This pattern holds across ALL age groups: between age 30 and age 84.

Fine Print:

  • Annual mortality rate drop to 0.05% or below must be sustained for 12 consecutive months.

  • Age group buckets in CDC WONDER: 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84

Background:

Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):

  • Overall population: ~0.9% annually (900 per 100,000)

  • Ranges from 0.1% (age 30-34) to over 4% (age 80+)

  • Accidental deaths account for ~0.04% annually (40 per 100,000)

  • If all diseases and aging were cured, mortality would drop to accident-only rates (0.04%), representing a 95%+ reduction from current levels.

  • The annual mortality rate figure measures population statistics (not a particular individual).

  • Update 2025-07-01 (PST): - The resolution criteria are based on the mortality rates of biological humans as defined by the CDC WONDER database. (AI summary of creator comment)

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2mo

I think that even if there is a widely available cure for all diseases and aging by 2050, the mortality rate would still be above 0.05%

2mo

@MalachiteEagle why is that?
If humans are not dying from diseases and aging then the mortality rate will drop to 0.05% or lower. It is explained in the background section.

2mo

@yaqubali you are using current estimations to make a prediction for 2050. There's a good chance that this does not make sense. There are plenty of reasons for this. For example, there could be a major global conflict in 2050 raising the mortality rate, despite diseases and aging being cured. There could be a society-scale pro-suicide movement.

2mo

@yaqubali there could be an epidemic of homicides

2mo

@MalachiteEagle there could be a spike in fatal accidents

2mo

@yaqubali there could be things where the definition of dying gets less clear cut than it is in 2025. Like cryogenics, uploading, replacing brain regions with artificial components...

Then it gets much harder to define the mortality rate

@yaqubali there could be weird stuff like diseases being cured but people ritualistically infect themselves with a deadly pathogen for religious reasons and then resurrect from backups

@yaqubali all kinds of things could happen by 2050

2mo

@MalachiteEagle The CDC benchmark is based on the mortality rates of biological humans. That is the resolution criteria.

2mo

@yaqubali if all disease and aging is cured then people are going to start doing weird things. My guess is that the set of things they end up doing that's different to what we do in 2025 (if we're indeed on this timeline), would result in a higher mortality rate.

2mo

@yaqubali that can be something as mundane as lots of people taking up dangerous sports

@yaqubali does what I'm saying make sense? I think your question is good, you just need to adjust the criteria a bit to account for these sorts of changes in baseline mortality trends etc

2mo

@yaqubali oh and also all the people who would choose not to take cures for aging and stuff. Got to account for that

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