In which year will an AI-generated movie become the first major box office success?
3
175Ṁ118
2051
September 18, 2037
8%
2025-2027
18%
2028-2030
18%
2031-2035
18%
2036-2040
18%
2041-2045
18%
2046-2050

Background

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have opened the door to AI-driven content creation. This includes generating a film’s screenplay, dialogue, direction, and even the video imagery itself (e.g., through text-to-video or other AI-driven synthesis). This question explores when AI will first independently produce a commercially successful feature-length movie with limited human intervention in the final production.

Resolution Criteria

  1. AI Authorship & Creation

    • At least 99% of the script, dialogue, and core creative content (narrative choices, character arcs, scene construction) must be generated by AI.

    • At least 95% of the final video imagery (i.e., the on-screen footage) must be AI-generated. Minor human edits or compositing are allowed, but the overwhelming majority of the visuals must originate from AI processes (e.g., text-to-video models or AI-driven rendering).

    • Publicly available documentation (e.g., reputable media coverage, studio statements) must verify the AI’s role in both scriptwriting and final visual creation.

  2. Minimum Runtime

    • The finished film must have a runtime of at least 60 minutes.

  3. Box Office Threshold

    • If theatrically released, the movie must earn at least $100 million in worldwide box office receipts within its first 12 months of release, confirmed by publicly available sources (e.g., Box Office Mojo, studio financial reports).

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules