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MANIFOLD
Will Artemis 1 be damaged by Tropical Storm Nicole
12
Ṁ230Ṁ484
resolved Nov 16
Resolved
NO

Artemis 1 is staying on the pad for now, but there seems to be a risk involved.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/nasa-will-leave-its-4-1-billion-rocket-outside-as-nicole-approaches-florida/

I will resolve this YES if there are credible reports of more than de minimis damage such that, in hindsight, not rolling back was a mistake.

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predictedNO

@NicoDelon @LivInTheLookingGlass I would note that I specifically phrased it as "in hindsight", which is to say, ex post, rather than ex ante.

Therefore, if they manage a successful launch tonight, I'm strongly inclined to resolve as NO, though I am open to contrary arguments. And obviously, if the launch fails or otherwise is seriously delayed specifically on account of storm damage, that's a definite YES.

(If it's delayed for unrelated reasons, then I'll need to actually parse through the reports and think it over to decide, which I haven't done yet)

predictedNO

@YaakovSaxon It seems like it wasn't a mistake in hindsight then?

predictedYES

#Artemis press conference update:

Two open issues as a result of the storm:

(1) liquid hydrogen tail service mast umbilical -- suspect electrical connector (even if they can’t fix this, there’s a backup, so won’t preclude launcH)

(2) Room temperature RTV material has delaminated from the eastern side of Orion (basically this is a caulk that has come off, can’t be serviced at the pad, so they need more time to discuss)

Intention is to launch Wednesday though

#NASA #space

https://mastodon.social/@skrishna/109339773115341439

predictedNO

https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-left-space-launch-system-moon-rocket-out-hurricane-nicole-2022-11?amp

Does minor damage count? Apparently it’s not preventing the upcoming launch.

predictedNO

@NicoDelon It’s not clear from the article whether we can still conclude that they didn’t make a mistake ex ante.

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