This market will be a random walk. It's underlying true probability will move up and down in steps according to randomness generated in the comment section. You can generate a bit of randomness and then buy/sell to the new value, and always have positive expected value by doing so.
To participate, use the FairlyRandom bot to generate a number 0-1, by making a comment “@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1”. If the bot returns 0, the true probability goes DOWN by the step size, if it returns 1, it goes UP by the step size.
THE STEP SIZE FOR NOW IS 10, (but I will probably change it to 5 at some point after the market gets some liquidity)
If the underlying true probability ever hits 0, or 100, it will resolve to NO or YES respectively, and no further rolls will matter. Otherwise I will either resolve to the true probability numerically, or use it to generate a YES or NO answer probabilistically.
If I’ve done the math correctly, this "true probability" is in fact the true probability of the question's resolution, and it should always be rational to buy/sell to the latest value. (If you think otherwise feel free to correct me if in the comments and/or try to take advantage).
You may roll again if 10 people have rolled since the last time you rolled.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ132 | |
| 2 | Ṁ32 | |
| 3 | Ṁ30 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
People are also trading
@ShitakiIntaki your random number is: 34
Technical details
Round: 2884581, salt: tfAgLpJ8LYeBS6FJfdti, retries: 0. To validate, run the following Linux command: echo -n 43b71a36ed51549c4f605d0bd107ca8911a59bb58771a4b947f37e74aef5f48d-tfAgLpJ8LYeBS6FJfdti | sha256sum. Take the first sixteen hex digits of the output (0xf230650e82695df5 = 17451559669052562933) modulo 51 and add 25. Randomness details:
{"round": 2884581, "randomness": "43b71a36ed51549c4f605d0bd107ca8911a59bb58771a4b947f37e74aef5f48d", "signature": "995e0d7e8cbb0ec5af736c5ecbecf5346290162e3379ae58f260910eba174682e2204fefd392775b8a1c87fe110a2bae198029cf3e79d43b76fa111144ea3222e779e0dbc58b4dfc2f2ca39ed98430a2b1c4c55cbea9a7d2f8cb6b2f09355e0f", "previous_signature": "958544c1ed5786f0934807f72ad6f0b8dcb35f8885235a7668676148da7b9972a531b7f6ffbdd5dfb43be329679c9ab90314f8f96a17bfed98e96e438dec02644441e2f79c9ef1b4a034bc4de10baa5e1473127a190035d7f67ee8262b34ced3", "timestamp_retrieved": 1681968453, "timestamp_available_estimate": 1681968450}
@ShitakiIntaki you asked for a random integer between 25 and 75, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
You can view the open-source implementation and usage instructions for this bot on GitHub.
Technical details
Previous round: 2884579 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2884581, salt: tfAgLpJ8LYeBS6FJfdti. Algorithm:
m = hashlib.sha256()
m.update(randomness['randomness'].encode('ascii'))
m.update('-tfAgLpJ8LYeBS6FJfdti'.encode('ascii'))
while True:
m_int = int.from_bytes(m.digest()[:8], byteorder='big')
if m_int < 18446744073709551615:
return (m_int % 51) + 25
m.update("-RETRY")
Randomness details:
{"round": 2884579, "randomness": "06e3d51214c42d413151c55cb5edf8173477cf333ed84221de0ad75e1e5cbe3e", "signature": "b28a82641f2912c3e7315ed7e53343c8ecda0ae172aa11bebc36a848e9eb07693e1697e9fc00e91d55027918948d476717932743dccfb9a9d0585c5dc0c1100c77a7d24b6d8495f9f72478a0b22c3590b02334b8d9e2b8130512df36aacd498a", "previous_signature": "8640a62ad209fbcb6f9d0e2c7bc290dae38ad5672a282359e58dbd20433f581960c8ddf82207d7c32f0a8cb8733336d60d81851ec706ce433e42170c75f213ca56e416b50bada82bf947945899c8c7d22bbf0077d7527c6093c86b7a2a11cbb8", "timestamp_retrieved": 1681968411, "timestamp_available_estimate": 1681968390}
Expectation would have been resolution in 25 rolls starting at 50% with 10% steps, and this market got there in 7.
@higherLEVELING your random number is: 0
Salt: qCxpAuTudbKMNOh08pSO, round: 2703553 (signature a2be1380914748c3bb482bade7cad08198640adf3c34cbb70e7e3d4d1641f7078d0f5f28db9ca374089226e1c193e48c15283d608ac5b69fc884f29ba0303271696fd93b588702ee7b5c0401d9ad627ca3d78b8ef575585c27da9d6331025a1c)
@higherLEVELING you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 2703551 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2703553, salt: qCxpAuTudbKMNOh08pSO.
@JOHNADAMS your random number is: 1
Salt: PLF63Se4vCoJxYAnd7E7, round: 2703548 (signature 8afddb835754409802e299630e7ca8bdccb0c7b3099a8aef82dc3c9d615c75f6b1bbe0015e1a59c847496449044d698006340816e6f856e47e725cc0c05320431d72ccb224597d1f258935a6ad37750f2adddfc8a4e9f2fbcecbf59184b2d5fe)
@JOHNADAMS you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 2703546 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2703548, salt: PLF63Se4vCoJxYAnd7E7.
@howtodowtle your random number is: 1
Salt: bN75OV21Lks18ofK460V, round: 2702669 (signature b8eb2096382ac37d9918266734fb22c816a16fc98c2a5e86ce2c18ea3ce1f52090d9736d065dce111bb4e897f11cd91314a1d720b6c39c323df62d61389b0b6b46c6afc3c00155785349ae1a5e6d54a1e99317a673e955785e89e8944168c50b)
@howtodowtle you asked for a random integer between 0 and 1, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 2702667 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 2702669, salt: bN75OV21Lks18ofK460V.
@MartinModrak your random number is: 1
Salt: 1W6QQDnlUlV6TQO18sBM, round: 2702657 (signature b9c68ff84b242cd3af3df2727de5c3f941d1fcb006a5e16bb1f71cb32ca363cdb756cc224eb204086a5381856612c5e70f2db80f93de8a934c50cc30fbf439fed611666b652a9f4bc662c374f40e7cddf667de32f3345f903582790775224873)