This market will be a random walk. It's underlying true probability will move up and down in steps according to randomness generated in the comment section. You can generate a bit of randomness and then buy/sell to the new value, and always have positive expected value by doing so.

To participate, use the FairlyRandom bot to generate a number 0-1, by making a comment “@FairlyRandom min=0 max=1”. If the bot returns 0, the true probability goes DOWN by the step size, if it returns 1, it goes UP by the step size.

THE STEP SIZE FOR NOW IS 10, (but I will probably change it to 5 at some point after the market gets some liquidity)

If the underlying true probability ever hits 0, or 100, it will resolve to NO or YES respectively, and no further rolls will matter. Otherwise I will either resolve to the true probability numerically, or use it to generate a YES or NO answer probabilistically.

If I’ve done the math correctly, this "true probability" is in fact the true probability of the question's resolution, and it should always be rational to buy/sell to the latest value. (If you think otherwise feel free to correct me if in the comments and/or try to take advantage).

You may roll again if 10 people have rolled since the last time you rolled.