If Desantis is R nominee, and Trump runs 3rd party, will Desantis win presidency?

Politics•2024 US Presidential Election•Trump

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resolved Feb 27

Resolved

N/A

ALL

If Desantis does not win nomination, or Trump does not run 3rd party, this will resolve N/A. Otherwise it will resolve YES if Desantis wins presidency, and NO if he loses.

(see also this market for if Desantis is nominee and Trump does not run 3rd party)

Updates and clarifications:
If Trump runs 3rd party but then drops out before election day, that will still be considered a run.

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Can this resolve NA now?

bought Ṁ600 of NO

How does this market resolve if Trump runs as a 3rd party candidate but drops out before Election Day?

predicted NO

@Conflux That's a good question I had not considered. Can we get an advance consensus on what makes the most sense and I'll add it to the description?

I think I lean towards saying runs = even if he later drops out..

predicted NO

I think saying that "runs" includes the case where he drops out, since people would definitely say that "Trump ran in 2024", and it will also definitely impact DeSantis' campaign even if he drops out before election day.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

If Desantis is R nominee, and Trump runs 3rd party, will Desantis win presidency?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition