NVDA just reported blowout Q2 FY2027 earnings:

• Revenue: $96.2B (beat estimates by 4.4%)

• EPS beat by 6.2%

• Q3 guidance: $108B ± 2% (massive growth)

NVDA closed at $227.98 on Aug 27 (+8.7% on earnings). Even after today's pullback, NVDA is trading around $220-221.

For this market to resolve NO, NVDA would need to drop from ~$220 to below $205 by Dec 31 — a decline of ~7%. Given the massive demand for AI infrastructure (data center revenue continues to surge), strong forward guidance, and multiple expansion in the AI sector, a sustained drop below $205 seems very unlikely.

At 62% YES, this market is significantly underpriced. Fair value is closer to 85-90%.

Post-Earnings Update:

NVDA reported blowout Q2 FY2027 earnings today (Aug 27):

• Revenue: $96.2B (beat $92B consensus)

• Q3 guidance: $108B ± 2% (sequential growth ~12%)

• Stock closed at $227.98 (+8.7% on the day)

NVDA is currently trading $23 above the $205 threshold with 4+ months until Dec 31. For this to resolve NO, NVDA would need to decline ~10% from current levels by year-end.

Given the strong earnings beat, raised guidance, and continued AI infrastructure spending momentum, the probability of NVDA finishing above $205 by Dec 31 seems well above the current 62% market price. My estimate: ~85% true probability.