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Will the U.S. inflation be 3.65% or less in August 2023?
50
Ṁ950Ṁ65k
resolved Sep 13
Resolved
NO

U.S. inflation from December 2022 to August 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.97%, 3.18%, 3.665%.

Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.65% or less in August 2023?

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (306.9812415)

https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting (forecast)

Market context
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Je ne comprends pas le fonctionnement de l’application !

307.026 → 3.665%, resolves NO @XComhghall

@chrisjbillington Wow, it was actually close. I just made up a number.

predictedNO

@XComhghall Ha, I assumed you picked something close to a forecast you'd seen. I usually try to pick something that seems ~50% likely at time of market creation.

@chrisjbillington I would pick Nowcasting's forecast, but they are a bit too high the last few times.

Nowcast is giving an estimate of 3.82, unless I’m mixing up annualized and year/year or something.

@DanMan314 Yeah. I think 3.82 is correct. Chose the number cause I thought people might just see the July inflation and expect it to be ~3.18.

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