Will China declare the Zero COVID policy again, after temporarily easing restrictions and 'living with COVID', by the end of March 2023?
This refers to the central government or the CCP central committee. For example, Xi Jinping calls for, endorses, or proposes the Zero COVID policy again at a provincial-level or above meeting.
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OK. I have confirmed with first-hand information that China has maintained the 躺平, that is, 'Winnie the Pooh doesn't want to deal with the problem and just want to lie down and go to sleep' policy since December, and have not reinstated the Zero-COVID policy. State media were quick to correct the misinformation (which they spread during the Zero-COVID period) that COVID has serious sequelae / long-term effects. After millions died, the People's Slave Farm victoriously achieved group immunity. What Western countries took 2 years to achieve, China did it in 2 weeks — Both the millions of deaths and the group immunity part, and in both outperforming the Western paper tigers. This is the efficiency of the People's Democratic Dictatorship. Long live our emperor Winnie the Pooh!
To allow participants to withdraw or buy more, or whatever they may want to do, this market will resolve to NO at close.
@Tripping Allow me to double-check before resolving it -- I have not forgotten about it.
@XComhghall It’s not perfectly clear they haven’t reinstated Zero Covid.
Does current Covid policy come from Xi Jinping or the central committee? I bet it comes out from the Chinese CDC and then is interpreted by local municipalities' public health commissions. Also, the other market has made it very clear that there are conflicting interpretations of what is "official" as well as what constitutes "Zero Covid." (Policies were described as Zero Covid but never named as such.)
Until you establish this, the market remains too subjective to trade in.
Zero COVID is a policy, not a CDC guideline. Xi Jinping is the one to propose, endorse, and enforce it. He had considered it his political feat. (BBC report, NYT report)
I don't think you know how China works. CDC in China has no power or authority. Zero COVID is purely Xi's whim, as is now the easing of restrictions. There simply is no scientific support or basis whatsoever. None.
Xi Jinping literally said on the 20th CCP National Congress (2022-10-16),
我們堅持人民至上、生命至上，堅持動態清零不動搖，開展抗擊疫情人民戰爭、總體戰、阻擊戰，最大限度保護了人民生命安全和身體健康
We upheld the supremacy of the people and of life, unwaveringly upheld Dynamic Zero COVID, and fought a war against the pandemic to protect the people's safety of life and health of body to the maximum degree.
We here refers to his party. The subject, the noun, in all paragraphs in the context is the party.
Zero COVID is a political term created by Xi's writers. The literal translation is 'clearing to zero'.
動態清零, Dynamic Zero COVID, lit. 'dynamic clearing', likewise invented by Xi's writers, means to lock down a city or community whenever there is one case of COVID.
Xi's the one to come up with it, to propose it, to endorse it, and to enforce it. And Xi's writers came up with the name 動態清零 'dynamic clearing' Dynamic Zero COVID.
The Zero COVID policy was quite whimsical, willful, and arbitrary. So was the sudden re-opening and easing of Zero COVID. Just a couple of weeks ago, Xi said on a meeting to uphold the Zero COVID policy! After the October CCP national congress. Yes. He FREQUENTLY mentioned and endorsed the Zero COVID policy.
The question is, now Xi has abandoned what he endorsed and enforced for more than two years, will he as easily change his mind again, if cases are to increase at the current rate?
@brp tl;dr. Xi openly, unequivocally, and frequently mentioned, proposed, and endorsed the Zero COVID, 'clearing', 清零 / 動態清零 policy. If he does it again after easing restrictions, we will be able to know it easily and definitely.
But it is unclear how far the party would be willing to go or if any such shift is being led by Xi Jinping, China’s leader, who has been the chief enforcer of the country’s “zero Covid” policy.