Tesla is reporting they will launch a robotaxi service in June in Austin, Texas starting with 10-20 vehicles. This market will resolve "yes" if a Tesla robotaxi is involved in any motor vehicle collision, regardless of fault or severity, within 90 days of launching. It will resolve "no" if no MVC is reported after 90 days of launching. It will resolve 'N/A" if robotaxis fail to launch by the end of the summer, or launch with in-car safety drivers. If remote safety drivers are utilized rather than in-car safety drivers, the market will not be resolved "N/A" and will continue to use the original resolution criteria. Resolution date will be modified based on robotaxi launch date.

Resolution will be based on official reports from Tesla, law enforcement, or credible news sources.

• Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to user questions regarding intentional collisions (e.g., deliberate acts of vandalism or road rage resulting in a collision with a Tesla robotaxi):

  • The creator has affirmed that the market will resolve based on the occurrence of any motor vehicle collision, as per the original criteria.

  • No exception will be made if a collision is deemed intentional.

  • The creator stated that judging intent is considered too perilous, reinforcing that resolution will proceed based on the existing criteria, regardless of fault or the intent behind the collision.

• Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will not resolve to N/A if the vehicles utilize in-car safety monitors.

This is being treated as distinct from the original N/A condition for in-car safety drivers.