This market refers to the model underlying Bing Chat as of March 6th 2023.

Bing Chat counts as conscious even if the simulacra of the underlying model are only individually conscious at the time of their simulation.

The market resolves when humanity has an agreed upon model of consciousness that lets us constrain our expectation as much as modern sciences contrain our expectation of physics or biology. If we won't have such a model by 2100, the market resolves "Yes" if, on Dec 15th 2100, the market probability is above 99%, and it resolves "No" if the market probability is below 1%. It resolves NA otherwise.