Within 48 hours from now I'm going to turn off all Manifold notifications, log out, and avoid opening the website for 12 days. If by the end of that period I still don't know how that market resolved, then I will resolve this market YES. Otherwise I will resolve it to NO.
If that market resolves to "no" before I log off and I see it, it still counts.
Some factors to consider:
I got used to opening Manifold when I get bored, so I might have some lingering muscle memory for a while. If I do open the website I'll just close it again as soon as I realize what I did.
If something interesting happens and I really want to check out some market, or if I read an article that links to this website, I might open Manifold. But I will avoid logging in as much as possible, and avoid looking at anything that might reveal the outcome of the other market.
I won't try to reolve my other markets during the time period, unless I fail this challenge.
I won't trade in this market.
1,000
3.00If you fuck up and forget to close Manifold and see the result on here, will you resolve as N/A?
@KimberlyWilberLIgt I would resolve it as NO in that case. Though I'm a compulsive tab-closer so I doubt this matters much.
@asmith the two weeks started counting when I created the market. Hence why it still resolves to NO if the other market resolves before I log out within the next two days.