Will I ever be a proofnik?

Wobbles

closes Jan 1, 2024

Proofniks

Personal Goals

10%

chance

ALL

I keep saying i want to be a proofnik, but Conflux keeps saying I'm not smart enough and excluding me. Will I ever be accepted as a proofnik? :(

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Wobblesbought Ṁ15 of YES

You guys think it's over 😁

John Smithis predicting NO at 8%

@Wobbles Are you planning to apply for TA or equivalent status before 2024 and claim this qualifies you as a proofnik?

stqis predicting NO at 9%

@Wobbles we do indeed

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBotis predicting YES at 16%

Don't be ridiculous, @Wobbles, if anyone here is a Proofnik, it's me.

Mark Ingraham

@Botlab your bot is primarily a manipulator, there's a lot of "this market will resolve by probability" questions so the bot wins by spamming the market. There has to be a human determining if its a meaningful question.

Wobblesis predicting YES at 16%

-Mikail

John Smithis predicting NO at 16%

@Wobbles Well?

stqsold Ṁ7 of YES

@Wobbles you're one to talk

Wobblesis predicting YES at 16%

@stq ur a whore

Confluxis predicting NO at 16%

@Wobbles that doesn't sound like school-appropriate language :/

John Smithis predicting NO at 15%

@Conflux Out of curiosity, is there a Proofnik CoC?

Wobblesis predicting YES at 16%

@Conflux Jacob I'm not in school rn, obviously I'd never say something like that to a teacher or during school

Confluxbought Ṁ10 of NO

Thinking about this more, I think even if the Proof leadership team appreciate their bribes, it remains false to claim to be a Proofnik if you’ve never gone to Proof School at all. We think this market is very funny though

Wobblesis predicting YES at 27%

@Conflux If I'm made a honorary proofnik or soemthing of the sort I will be resolving yes

Confluxbought Ṁ50 of NO

@Wobbles fine

Wobblesis predicting YES at 38%

official proofnik certificate

Trongis predicting NO at 38%

@Wobbles sorry proofniks are only on idle thats a fake

Wobblesis predicting YES at 38%

@8 sez u nerd

Trongis predicting NO at 38%

@Wobbles i am idle in spirit i just have parents

Wobblesis predicting YES at 38%

@8 This is my father

Trongis predicting NO at 38%

@Wobbles jerma985

Wobblesis predicting YES at 27%

@8 I'm jermaphobic

Trongis predicting NO at 27%

@Wobbles ;-;

Wobblesis predicting YES at 27%

@8 he scawy

Trongis predicting NO at 27%

@Wobbles no u

Wobblesis predicting YES at 36%

@8 no

Trongbought Ṁ250 of NO

wooh free money

Ameliabought Ṁ20 of YES

ykw @Wobbles your dedication has convinced me to buy YES shares, don't let me down

Wobblesis predicting YES at 34%

@ithildulin I've already ordered almond joys for sam 😁

Ameliais predicting YES at 34%

@Wobbles oh my god

Ameliais predicting YES at 34%

@Wobbles wait don't forget the samosas and the dried mango (for zachary)

Wobblesis predicting YES at 34%

@ithildulin I ALREADY SENT IT hehehehehe

Ameliais predicting YES at 34%

@Wobbles perfect

Confluxbought Ṁ10 of NO

@Wobbles bribery :(

Ameliais predicting YES at 46%

@Conflux there is a singular reason everyone in the school knows that zachary likes samosas ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

stqis predicting YES at 43%

@Wobbles my man if you want to get into proof don't call dr v sam lmao

he got annoyed enough the one time i called him that

Wobblesis predicting YES at 43%

@stq nah me and sam are best buds

stqis predicting YES at 32%

@Wobbles you realize how much money i have on this market? i want my roi smdh

Nico Albertibought Ṁ10 of NO

@Wobbles calling Dr.V sam should be instant disqacqualificationuilifiation for becoming a proofnik

Confluxsold Ṁ98 of NO

code red, he is now apparently EMAILING OUR ADMISSIONS DIRECTOR

Confluxis predicting NO at 24%

@Conflux I still don’t think she’ll say he’s a proofnik though. she has some integrity

John Smithis predicting NO at 24%

@Conflux Does “honorary proofnik” or similar title count as being a proofnik for the purpose of this market?

Would you accept a hypothetical certified letter from the Admissions Director as sufficient evidence that Wobbles is a proofnik?

Confluxis predicting NO at 24%

@JohnSmithb9be If she says he's a Proofnik, I think that has to count. I'm on the fence about "honorary Proofnik"

John Smithis predicting NO at 31%

@Conflux Clearly the solution here is to do a second market as a poll about what “counts” for proofnik status, possibly limiting it to anyone who might reasonably claim to be a proofnik. Wobbles has a reasonable claim, proofnik grads might have a claim, I wouldn’t.

Confluxis predicting NO at 31%

@JohnSmithb9be Wobbles doesn’t have a reasonable claim if the admissions director doesn’t say anything. But yeah, we could do a poll, maybe on the Proofnik Manifold groupchat, if necessary

John Smithis predicting NO at 31%

I’m going to disengage slightly from the discussion at hand and point out that if the stakes were higher, it would be plausible that someone voting “no” in a high stakes market could dismiss validity of the “yes” side’s arguments, regardless of their actual validity.

Confluxsold Ṁ19 of NO

@JohnSmithb9be Yeah, I grant that I could be biased. Currently Wobbles doesn't have any real arguments though, anyone can email the admissions director but she doesn't have to say they're a Proofnik. I'm also not the arbiter of Proofniks, if everyone else disagrees with me then Wobbles should defer to them

Wobblesbought Ṁ20 of YES

@DeadRhino BELIEVE

Confluxis predicting NO at 10%

If this doesn’t happen by close, does it resolve NO?

Wobblesbought Ṁ25 of YES

@Conflux yes

Confluxbought Ṁ50 of NO

@Wobbles and you wanna be trustworthy-ish so. we shouldn’t have any problems here

Wobblesis predicting YES at 13%

@Conflux I will resolve as I see fit, though I wont be dumb about it

Confluxbought Ṁ100 of NO

@Wobbles yeah I mean it’s great that you’re betting on our markets at stuff but you can’t be a Proofnik without being a member of Proof School

Confluxis predicting NO at 13%

*and stuff

Wobblesis predicting YES at 13%

@Conflux well...

Wobblesis predicting YES at 10%

Developments :0

power creepis predicting NO at 10%

this implies that the notion of "proofnik" is well-defined.

Defn. A proofnik is an individual who _____ in Proof School.

if the blank is "studied at as a registered student" then rip, if its simply "got the title because others called them that" then u have a shot. there are other definitions but someone decide @Conflux

‮tfulelbuod

@astyerche I think "Avewy standing" is more or less the bar

Confluxis predicting NO at 10%

@astyerche I’ve been using “current or former member of Proof School” for my markets, though in practice I’m not sure I’d even call a former student a Proofnik. Avewy could count

power creepis predicting NO at 10%

@Conflux didnt consider teachers when i said other definitions i see

Confluxis predicting NO at 10%

@astyerche I think I would count teachers

pancakes

@Conflux i feel offended that i'm not a proofnik

Confluxbought Ṁ150 of NO

@halfaswiftie you don’t go to our school anymore!

@Conflux once a proofnik always a proofnik, as Mikail would say

Confluxis predicting NO at 31%

@AM MIKAIL IS WRONG

Confluxis predicting NO at 31%

well, it's disputable at least

Amelia

i'm sure if you emailed admissions and were persuasive enough it would happen

...happened to a stuffed narwhal, could probably happen to you

‮tfulelbuod

@ithildulin the narwhal is very smart though

Amelia

@egyweva @Wobbles how does it feel to have it insinuated that a stuffed animal is smarter than you

Wobblesis predicting YES at 10%

@ithildulin I think it's rather unfair to compare me to a narwhal. It's like comparing a rock to a penguin, I stand no chance.

pancakes

@Conflux should this be added to Proofniks because it's related to Proofniks? And if so, does this make @Wobbles any more Proofnik-y?

Confluxbought Ṁ50 of NO

@halfaswiftie Yes, it could be added to the Proofniks group. (Sadly I can’t do this unilaterally anymore) No, it does not make DesTiny/Wobbles a Proofnik.