When will the US H5N1 human case count surpass 100? | Manifold

When will the US H5N1 human case count surpass 100?

Plus

12

Ṁ4483

Feb 2

1D

1W

1M

ALL

15%

Before December 1st, 2024

20%

Before February 1st, 2025

Resolved

NO

Before August 1st, 2024

Resolved

NO

Before October 1st, 2024

I will resolve this question based on the official CDC case count.

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bought Ṁ100 Before December 1st,... NO

October resolves NO.

bought Ṁ50 Before October 1st, ... NO

The CDC reports 13 cases so far this year: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html

Are you measuring the count just from 2024, or also including previous years?

Just from 2024. There was only one other US case previously over the past couple of years.

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+6% 1d28% chance

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