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When will the US H5N1 human case count surpass 100?
35
Ṁ1kṀ11k
resolved Feb 2
Resolved
NO
Before August 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before October 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before December 1st, 2024
Resolved
NO
Before February 1st, 2025

I will resolve this question based on the official CDC case count.

Market context
Public Health
H5N1 Bird Flu
Pandemic
CDC
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@WinstonWalker February can resolve NO

December 2024:

66 Confirmed Total Reported Human Cases in the United States

Confirmed human case summary during the 2024 outbreak, by state and exposure source

Related market: https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-there-be-a-largescale-bird-flu-810463cb11ad

bought Ṁ100 NO

October resolves NO.

bought Ṁ50 NO

The CDC reports 13 cases so far this year: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html

bought Ṁ250 NO

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Now up to 55 cases.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 30 december 2024: 66 cases

Are you measuring the count just from 2024, or also including previous years?

Just from 2024. There was only one other US case previously over the past couple of years.

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