Will William Kiely be a Top 20 trader on or before March 27th?
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Ṁ985resolved Mar 21
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This market resolves to "YES" if I, William Kiely, reach a Top 20 trader position on the Manifold Markets leaderboard at any point before March 27, 2022 23:59:59 CST, i.e. one month after my site join date. Otherwise it resolves "NO".
To make this interesting, I will not participate in this market myself (with the possible exception of M$ 1 "YES" trades to allow myself to comment with information for all participants), nor give favoritism to some traders by privately sharing inside information with them that might give them an advantage.
Market close is set to one week before the end of the one month period, i.e. March 20, 2022 23:59:59 CST, to decrease the chance that the outcome will be known with certainty while trading is still open. Additionally, in the event that I become a Top 20 trader before March 27, I will make an effort to close and resolve this question as soon as I can upon learning of this fact before others can buy "YES", in order to get the early "YES" buyers more profit. Feel free to DM me to notify me if resolution is appropriate.
Market ante is M$ 10. Initial probability is 20%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I currently have M$ 2,034 in cash and a Total Profit of M$ 1,049. I saw a post on social media mentioning Manifold in a serious discussion and found that I felt obligated to chime in and share my belief that Manifold is not currently a serious betting site and that people often should not update at all based on market price information, since traders participating in them are generally either irrational or trying to game other traders who they know are irrational.
I strongly agree with the critiques of this post and am very glad to hear than Manifold is planning to fix the current broken pricing rule: https://kevin.zielnicki.com/2022/02/17/manifold/
My total profit is currently M$ 688. It didn't require any forecasting skill to make that profit. There are several things about this site that I don't like, including the abundance of bad questions and the fact that becoming a top trader has little to do with forecasting skill. I now think that if my goal were to meet the conditions for this question to resolve yes, I would very likely succeed, but I now don't care about becoming a "top trader" because it doesn't mean anything--it doesn't feel like any sort of forecasting accomplishment.