Will William Kiely be a Top 20 trader on or before March 27th?
9
100Ṁ985resolved Mar 21
Resolved
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This market resolves to "YES" if I, William Kiely, reach a Top 20 trader position on the Manifold Markets leaderboard at any point before March 27, 2022 23:59:59 CST, i.e. one month after my site join date. Otherwise it resolves "NO".
To make this interesting, I will not participate in this market myself (with the possible exception of M$ 1 "YES" trades to allow myself to comment with information for all participants), nor give favoritism to some traders by privately sharing inside information with them that might give them an advantage.
Market close is set to one week before the end of the one month period, i.e. March 20, 2022 23:59:59 CST, to decrease the chance that the outcome will be known with certainty while trading is still open. Additionally, in the event that I become a Top 20 trader before March 27, I will make an effort to close and resolve this question as soon as I can upon learning of this fact before others can buy "YES", in order to get the early "YES" buyers more profit. Feel free to DM me to notify me if resolution is appropriate.
Market ante is M$ 10. Initial probability is 20%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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