Resolution Criteria
Authorities suspect a CNG cylinder blast, though the exact cause is yet to be confirmed. This market resolves based on the official determination of the cause by Indian law enforcement agencies (Delhi Police, NIA, or relevant investigative bodies). Resolution will be determined by:
Official statements from Delhi Police, National Investigation Agency (NIA), or other authorized investigative bodies
Forensic analysis and technical reports released publicly
Court proceedings or official inquiries if applicable
The market resolves to whichever cause is officially confirmed as the primary reason for the explosion. If multiple causes are identified as contributing factors, resolution will be based on the cause deemed primary by investigators.
Background
The blast occurred close to Gate No 1 of the Lal Quila Metro Station, setting a car ablaze and damaging three nearby vehicles. The Fire Department received an emergency call around 6:55 pm. As many as eight persons were killed in a massive blast in a car near Delhi's Red Fort. Initial reports suggest it could have been caused by a gas cylinder or a vehicle battery malfunction. The police are also probing a terror angle.
Considerations
Initial evidence points to an improvised explosive device according to some reports, while authorities suspect a CNG cylinder blast according to others. The investigation is ongoing and the cause remains officially unconfirmed. Traders should monitor official statements from investigative agencies as the inquiry progresses.
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves based on official investigation findings by Delhi Police, NIA, or relevant bomb disposal authorities regarding whether the cause was a CNG cylinder explosion, low-intensity improvised explosive device (IED), or other cause. Resolution will be determined by:
Official statements from Delhi Police Special Cell, National Investigation Agency (NIA), or authorized investigative bodies
Forensic analysis and technical reports released publicly
Court proceedings or official inquiries if applicable
As of 7:30 PM IST on November 10, no organization has claimed responsibility for the incident. The market resolves to whichever entity or cause is officially confirmed as responsible. If no credible claim of responsibility emerges and the cause remains undetermined after investigation concludes, the market resolves to "No one claims responsibility / Remains undetermined."
Background
Eight persons were killed in the blast near Gate No 1 of the Lal Quila Metro Station, which set a car ablaze and damaged three nearby vehicles, with the Fire Department receiving an emergency call around 6:55 pm. The explosion comes barely a day after Haryana Police seized 300 kilograms of explosives in Faridabad, part of what investigators believe was a major terror plot targeting multiple cities.
Considerations
Authorities are investigating whether the cause was a CNG cylinder explosion or a low-intensity improvised explosive device (IED), with conflicting initial reports. Initial evidence points to an improvised explosive device according to some reports, while initial reports suggest it could have been caused by a gas cylinder or a vehicle battery malfunction. The investigation is ongoing and the cause remains officially unconfirmed. Traders should monitor official statements from investigative agencies as the inquiry progresses.
Update 2025-11-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "Other" option that was created by mistake has been removed or corrected by the creator.
Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date has been extended.
For resolution sources, the creator will use any reputed Indian newspaper including:
ANI
Indian Express
Times of India
The Hindu
Other similar reputed Indian newspapers
Update 2025-11-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the primary cause deemed by investigators, not based on who claims responsibility (despite the market title saying "claim responsibility").
Update 2025-12-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that official NIA press releases (including from their X/Twitter account) are sufficient sources for resolution. The market is ready to resolve to "Terrorist organization" based on NIA's official confirmation linking the Red Fort blast to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and identifying it as a suicide bombing.
Update 2025-12-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve to "Terrorist organization", the NIA or relevant authorities must name a specific terrorist organization responsible for the attack. Simply calling it a "terror attack" without naming the organization is not sufficient for resolution to this answer.
1,000@WilliamJose DNA testing confirmed Dr. Umar Un Nabi, a 32-year-old Kashmiri doctor from Pulwama district (Jammu & Kashmir), as the individual who detonated the bomb. The NIA has arrested 8 individuals linked to a Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) logistics cell operating across Faridabad, Lucknow, Gurugram, Nuh, and south Kashmir.
NIA also said "The National Investigation Agency said on Sunday (November 16, 2025) that the driver of the car, Umar ul Nabi — a doctor by profession — was a 'suicide bomber'." The probe links him to a JeM module with arrested accomplices for IED procurement and execution.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/inside-jaishs-hidden-arsenal-rockets-in-the-making-were-indian-cities-in-crosshairs/articleshow/125400127.cms
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/red-fort-blast-case-8th-accused-arrested-provided-umar-logistical-support-says-nia-10411932/
Enough to resolve?
@WilliamJose but they haven't named any particular terrorist organization , just called the incident a terror attack
@prismatic @WilliamJose I'm still holding out for "No one claims responsibility". IMO it's not enough for the Indian government to say that xyz terror outfit was behind it.
@Hakari If we aren't trusting government sources, what would be a qualifying source? I think thats an incredibly high bar.
@prismatic "No one claims responsibility" is pretty clear - someone has to claim responsibility for it to resolve NO. Historically, terrorist outfits have been pretty open in claiming credit for attacks on India. Also, the market creator @WilliamJose responded above that a specific terrorist organization has to be named.
I'm not saying govt sources are wrong. But if it's purely based on the Indian govt pointing fingers, I wouldn't rule out "Pakistani Intelligence" either.
If I were the creator I'd either resolve 100% "No one claims responsibility"
OR perhaps partially resolve 45-45-10:
45 - "No one claims responsibility"
45 - "Terrorist Org"
10 - "Pak Intelligence"
@Hakari idk let’s see what the market creator says, my position was based on his words “the it'll be resolved based on primary cause deemed by the investigators.”
@WilliamJose rn we only have the following allegation https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/350-kg-explosives-ak-47-jk-cops-recover-arms-cache-from-doctors-home-in-faridabad-10356500/
@WilliamJose ok. Also, the headline says 'claim responsibility' but the body says 'primary cause deemed by investigators'? Which is it?
Pakistani intelligence has a non-zero history of proxy attacks on India but I don't think they've ever claimed it publicly?
@Hakari I'm so sorry for that the it'll be resolved based on primary cause deemed by the investigators.
For the second part i think that PM Musharraf had claimed responsibility in kashmir attacks https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11474618.amp
P.S -please excuse any mistakes on my part and feel free to correct me, I've been in a really stressful position lately and chronic sleep deprivation is affecting my functioning.
@WilliamJose gg dude, don't worry about it. I know the headline probably can't be edited now. And good call on Musharaff, I didn't know that.
This is just play money anyway. Have a nice day! And try to get more sleep!