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Total Gwern victory

@WilliamEhlhardt Can this resolve now or does it need to wait until EOY?

@Joshua I feel like I need to wait until EOY to be fair to the remaining YES holders.

@WilliamEhlhardt Alright I'll buy out no holders

https://x.com/miramurati/status/1839025700009030027

Why are people betting no?

@tr I posted this market and bet no because of this gwern comment:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KXHMCH7wCxrvKsJyn/openai-facts-from-a-weekend?commentId=eFuasCwaKJr2YiScY

The news today comes from the NYT leaking information from the final report: "Key OpenAI Executive [Mira Murati] Played a Pivotal Role in Sam Altman’s Ouster" (mirror; EDIT: largely confirmed by Murati in internal note).

The main theme of the article is clarifying Murati's role: as I speculated, she was in fact telling the Board about Altman's behavior patterns, and it fills in that she had gone further and written it up in a memo to him, and even threatened to leave with Sutskever.

[...]

Ilya Sutskever and Mira Murati will leave OA or otherwise take on some sort of clearly diminished role by year-end (90%, 75%; cf. Murati's desperate-sounding internal note)