Will I get COVID in 2022?

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resolved Aug 18

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YES

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Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before market close. Otherwise, NO. Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them. If you email your question privately to williamehlhardt@gmail.com, I will answer your question privately, giving you a chance to trade on your inside scoop. However, I will also publish the question and answer as a comment a few days later. Jun 21, 2:42am: I take about one trip every other month, by plane, within the continental United States. I wear this respirator with P100 filters through the airport and (overdoing it, I know) on the plane itself: https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B004IVYSDW . Note that TSA makes me take off the mask for the ID check and sometimes makes me switch to an N95 while going through the millimeter scanner. I socialize maskless and indoors freely with vaccinated people, including in large groups. I try to avoid spending substantial time indoors with strangers of unknown vaccination status, and wear an N95 or better when I do. I take pretty much no precautions outdoors. I have the following COVID vaccinations: 1. Pfizer 4 April 2021 2. Pfizer 27 April 2021 3. Pfizer 10 October 2021 4. Moderna 26 April 2022 and I expect to get vaccinated again in the fall, since my last booster didn't cause significant problems. Jun 21, 3:14pm: I will resolve early if YES, obviously.

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predicted YES

@WilliamEhlhardt Damn, that is the thickest T line I've ever seen. Hope you feel good very soon!

Housemate (whom I last spent significant time around yesterday) tested positive today. They're gonna go stay somewhere else for a couple weeks, though.

Thinking of attending Capla-Con: https://betonit.substack.com/p/capla-con-2022

Didn't do this, but did do karaoke with about 5 other people (in a room at a karaoke place) last weekend.

Going to a party this weekend that should have about 40-50 people outdoors on a rooftop.

I expect, at minimum, to do the following travel: - Indianapolis or Ann Arbor for Thanksgiving - a visit to Indianapolis some time this summer

predicted YES

Have you ever had COVID before?

@MattP Not that I'm aware of!

Forgot to mention (sorry!): I traveled by air to SFO this past weekend, and I went to three parties in SFO/Oakland: 1. about 15 people indoors, unmasked, heavily filtered for people likely to be vaccinated, for about 5 hours 2. about 100 people indoors, unmasked, not as heavily filtered for vaxxed people but probably >90% vaxxed, for about 5 hours 3. 100-200 people outdoors at a park, for about 9 hours

How often do you test? Are you taking regular tests, only if you have close known contacts, only if you have symptoms, etc?

@MattP I take tests if I have symptoms or high-risk close contacts. In practice I seem to wind up taking a rapid antigen test about twice a month? because I have allergies that are easy to mistake for early respiratory illness.

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