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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?
15
Ṁ100Ṁ1.1k
resolved May 6
Resolved
YES

https://x.com/allTheYud/status/2047543762675810799

@EliezerYudkowsky has agreed to debate X user @47fucb4r8c69323 for $10,000. Will this debate happen?

Resolves YES if a debate happens by the end of 2026, else NO.

If they just post on X but have no debate that looks like the debate they nominally agreed to have (presumably a real-time one?), resolves NO.

If it seems ambiguous, I will email Eliezer to ask whether the debate happened and will almost certainly treat that as dispositive.

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Bummed out because this market has closed? More exciting Eliezer forecasting here: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/will-eliezeryudkowsky-pose-in-a-fiv

bought Ṁ20 NO

I have gotten seemingly serious offers for lots of cash by unserious people and when I accepted the person was surprised and then insulted me, therefore I bet no.

Huh, maybe I spoke too soon.