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MANIFOLD
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?
8
Ṁ100Ṁ74
Dec 31
29%
chance

https://x.com/allTheYud/status/2047543762675810799

@EliezerYudkowsky has agreed to debate X user @47fucb4r8c69323 for $10,000. Will this debate happen?

Resolves YES if a debate happens by the end of 2026, else NO.

If they just post on X but have no debate that looks like the debate they nominally agreed to have (presumably a real-time one?), resolves NO.

If it seems ambiguous, I will email Eliezer to ask whether the debate happened and will almost cerainly treat that as dispositive.

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bought Ṁ20 NO

I have gotten seemingly serious offers for lots of cash by unserious people and when I accepted the person was surprised and then insulted me, therefore I bet no.