On December 31, 2025, the ACA enhanced premium tax credits expired. Without these credits, there is a very sharp cliff in US federal taxes at 400% of the Federal Poverty Line where you go from eligible for thousands (or tens of thousands if you're old) a year in premium tax credit subsidy to zero.

Since this is smack dab in the middle of the US income distribution, lots of people buying on the ACA Marketplace are affected by it, old people especially so, so it seems plausible that Congress would act to change it for 2026 even though the tax year has already started.

This market resolves YES if, in my judgment, Congress does something significant to ameliorate the cliff for Tax Year 2026 by the end of 2027, else NO.

Sufficient but not necessary for a YES:

• Restoring the enhanced PTC

• Some special TY2027 tweak that lets people reclaim a substantial chunk of the extra they had to pay in TY2026

Probably a NO:

• Medicaid expansion that blunts the impact for a 400%FPL person by <10%.

• State-level workarounds

• Fixing it for TY2027 without any change to people's effective 2026 impact