4
32
110
Jul 16
50%
chance

This question will resolve to YES if major news stations confirm that the GOP has selected its 2024 US presidential candidate before the start of the Republican National Convention. The convention starts on July 15, so the nomination must happen before 11:59 pm Eastern on July 14 for the question to be resolved YES.

Please note: I will resolve this question once major news stations confirm the candidate. If a candidate is nominated before the convention but then something unexpected happens after that point (e.g. the candidate dies, drops out, etc.), this question will still be resolved to YES.

For context on how past nominations would have resolved: 

  • 2020, Biden - YES

  • 2016, Clinton - NO

  • 2016, Trump - NO

  • 2012, Romney - NO

  • 2008, Obama - NO

  • 2008, McCain - YES

  • 2004, Kerry - NO

  • 2000, Gore - YES

  • 2000, Bush - YES

Tags: RNC, GOP, 2024 US Presidential Election, Republican Party, Republican National Convention, US Primaries, Trump, DeSantis, Christie, Haley, Pence, Ramaswamy, Scott

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Please clarify what this means. The nomination happens during the RNC so this would only happen if there is an unexpected rule change.

Weird market. The candidate is never nominated before the convention. So you are interpreting media statements that are about probabilities, which is just a bad road to go down.

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