FIDE Chess Candidates Tournament - Round 6 Prop Bets

Plus

Ṁ50k

resolved Apr 11

Resolved

YES

Gukesh and Nepo are still leading after the round is over

Resolved

Praggs sacks a pawn in the opening again (is a pawn down for 3+ moves before move 20)

Resolved

Gukesh or Vidit blunder in time pressure (<5 min on the clock & they make mistake or blunder according to Lichess post game analysis)

Resolved

A game ends via three fold repetition.

Resolved

YES

Someone plays a blunder according to a Lichess post game analysis

Resolved

Gukesh wins against Hikaru

Resolved

YES

Vidit wins against Alireza

Resolved

Abasov does not lose against Pragg

Resolved

YES

Nepo vs Caruana is a draw

Resolved

There will be a quick draw under 25 moves.

Resolved

Someone thinks for 40 minutes for a single move

Resolved

Only one player will have the lowest score after matches are over

Resolved

YES

All games reach at least 30 moves

Resolved

YES

White wins more games than black

Resolved

YES

A rating underdog wins a game

Resolved

3 or more decisive games

Resolved

3 or more draws

Resolved

A game lasts more than 60 moves

Resolved

YES

There will be a novelty played before move 10 (according to Lichess Masters database)

Resolved

American player wins

You are welcome to add your own options.

Games start 10th of April at 2:30 PM EDT (~12 hours from market creation). Come live bet with us.

Games can be followed here: https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-candidates-2024--open/round-4/CPS9dENa

Event info: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-fide-candidates-chess-tournament

One of the broadcasts will be streamed here: https://www.twitch.tv/chess24

General rules:

When referring to rankings, final rankings are used unless specified otherwise
If option is about something that is hard to easily verify (like something that can happen at any time during broadcast), I will give time for people to post evidence and if nobody does, I will resolve option like it didn't happen.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Prop Bets

#️ Chess

#Chess candidates 2024

Get

1,000

and

3.00

25 Comments

23 Holders

804 Trades

Sort by:

Round 7: https://manifold.markets/Weezing/fide-chess-candidates-tournament-ro-7f928516f9f7

lichess SF 16 shows me +2.3 on 26... g4. But it says depth 45 (cloud), not depth 30.

sold Ṁ1 YES

@harfe it shows 0.9 for me

@harfe But I can refund you, this options is kinda confusing.

@Weezing thats very generous of you. thx.
I tried it again. At first, it shows 0.9, but if I click on that move it updates to 2.3

@harfe Really? That's weird. Next time I will use the post game analysis. I wanted something the can be checked live, but it does not seem reliable.

anyone has footage?

@Weezing none afaict...watched his resignation and he was pretty chill

sold Ṁ31 NO

swear to god i read this as move 30 earlier

@diadematus it paid off :D

10 pawns in Caruana - Nepo on move 35

sold Ṁ25 YES

@diadematus 9 pawns in Alireza-Vidit on move 35

bought Ṁ600 YES

@diadematus

10 for Gulesh - Naka

8 for Pragg - Nijat

37 total

Danya has a longass story about Tal so AFAICT counter starts at 1

@diadematus Howell mentions Anand, Danya mentions Kramnik while discussing Pragg - Abasov

@diadematus GothamChess interviews Carlsen during a break and mentions his name, and Carlsen mentions Kasparov as GOAT

@diadematus Danya mentions that Pragg plays in a controlled fashion like Petrosian and Karpov. WC count is at 7 @Weezing

bought Ṁ100 YES

@diadematus You are good at this, I missed most of them.

bought Ṁ40 YES

@Weezing the lines were too easy though...the baseline should be 7 or 8 world champions since Carlsen, Anand and Kramnik/ Fischer are almost always mentioned

bought Ṁ10 YES

@diadematus Even if Danya is not commentating?

bought Ṁ14 NO

@Weezing He is the chief namedropper but I think yes

Peter Leko incredible counter is at 2 describing Qe2 by Gukesh

bought Ṁ30 YES

@diadematus wait, he says 'incredibly' and 'incredible' so counter stays at 1

sold Ṁ0 NO

@diadematus Leko says Fabiano has incredible opening knowledge after Nepo - Caruana ends in a draw

bought Ṁ15 NO

@diadematus After a break Leko says Pragg plays like "an incredible experienced grandmaster and it just drives me crazy". Game, set match @Weezing

Related questions

Related questions