Will MSF/PIH/John Green's campaign to lower the price of GeneXpert tests in LMICs succeed by the end of 2024?

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165

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2025

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John Green recently released a video advocating for Danaher/Cepheid to reduce the cost of their GeneXpert tests to $5/test.

Barely Contained Rage: An Open Letter to Danaher and Cepheid

Email Danaher and let them know you won't stand for price-gouging the world's poorest countries for testing: sustainability@danaher.comCall them. Overwhelm t...

More details can be found in this MSF writeup: https://msfaccess.org/time-for-5

> The 'Time for $5' Campaign calls on US diagnostics corporation Cepheid, and its parent company Danaher, to drop the price of its lifesaving GeneXpert tests to US$5 a test, so that many more people can get fast, accurate disease diagnosis, and receive treatment right away.

Resolution Criteria:
If by the end of 2024, MSF or another similar source reports that TD and XDR-TB GeneXpert tests will BOTH cost $6 USD or less when sold in LMICs, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise, NO.

Fine print:

I've added some margin to the $5 ask account for inflation, varying currencies rounding differences, etc. I think $6 still is well within the range of what I would call "success"
There are a lot of potential oddities around different prices in different places/subsidies/etc that could happen. I reserve the right to make a judgment call in those cases. I will not trade on this market.

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The campaign continues:

Danaher announced a collaboration to drop the price of TB tests (but not XDR-TB tests) by 20%. This doesn't meet the resolution criteria for his market - the price is now roughly $8, while the price of XDR-TB tests remains around $15. It is progress though, and future collaborations with a 3rd party verifier has the possibility to reduce the price further.

Global Fund, Stop TB Partnership and USAID Announce New Collaboration with Danaher to Reduce Price and Increase Access to Cepheid’s TB Test

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund) announced today a new collaboration with Danaher Corporation (Danaher), a global science and technology innovator who will provide Cepheid’s Xpert® MTB/RIF Ultra diagnostic test cartridges for tuberculosis (TB) at the price of US$7.97, a 20% reduction from the current price of US$9.98.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Great progress, but I don't see it going lower.

Some questions I'd love opinions on for the resolution criteria:
1. Should this specifically look at the prices for TB and XDR-TB, rather than a majority of test types?
2. If not, is average <$6 a better resolution criteria than median < $6 (effectively what it is now with >50% must be under $6)
2. Any better way to operationalize the criteria here than "reporting by MSF/other"? I can imagine all sorts of oddities around differing prices in different countries and subsidies in certain situations and whatnot that make this very hard to resolve objectively.