John Green recently released a video advocating for Danaher/Cepheid to reduce the cost of their GeneXpert tests to $5/test.
More details can be found in this MSF writeup: https://msfaccess.org/time-for-5
> The 'Time for $5' Campaign calls on US diagnostics corporation Cepheid, and its parent company Danaher, to drop the price of its lifesaving GeneXpert tests to US$5 a test, so that many more people can get fast, accurate disease diagnosis, and receive treatment right away.
Resolution Criteria:
If by the end of 2024, MSF or another similar source reports that TD and XDR-TB GeneXpert tests will BOTH cost $6 USD or less when sold in LMICs, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise, NO.
Fine print:
I've added some margin to the $5 ask account for inflation, varying currencies rounding differences, etc. I think $6 still is well within the range of what I would call "success"
There are a lot of potential oddities around different prices in different places/subsidies/etc that could happen. I reserve the right to make a judgment call in those cases. I will not trade on this market.
1,000
3.00Danaher announced a collaboration to drop the price of TB tests (but not XDR-TB tests) by 20%. This doesn't meet the resolution criteria for his market - the price is now roughly $8, while the price of XDR-TB tests remains around $15. It is progress though, and future collaborations with a 3rd party verifier has the possibility to reduce the price further.
Some questions I'd love opinions on for the resolution criteria:
1. Should this specifically look at the prices for TB and XDR-TB, rather than a majority of test types?
2. If not, is average <$6 a better resolution criteria than median < $6 (effectively what it is now with >50% must be under $6)
2. Any better way to operationalize the criteria here than "reporting by MSF/other"? I can imagine all sorts of oddities around differing prices in different countries and subsidies in certain situations and whatnot that make this very hard to resolve objectively.
@Weepinbell I think if the price of TB and XDR-TB is lower to around $5 the campaign as a whole could be considered a success.