Will MSF/PIH/John Green's campaign to lower the price of GeneXpert tests in LMICs succeed by the end of 2024?
7
150Ṁ988
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

John Green recently released a video advocating for Danaher/Cepheid to reduce the cost of their GeneXpert tests to $5/test.

More details can be found in this MSF writeup: https://msfaccess.org/time-for-5

> The 'Time for $5' Campaign calls on US diagnostics corporation Cepheid, and its parent company Danaher, to drop the price of its lifesaving GeneXpert tests to US$5 a test, so that many more people can get fast, accurate disease diagnosis, and receive treatment right away.


Resolution Criteria:
If by the end of 2024, MSF or another similar source reports that TD and XDR-TB GeneXpert tests will BOTH cost $6 USD or less when sold in LMICs, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise, NO.

Fine print:

  1. I've added some margin to the $5 ask account for inflation, varying currencies rounding differences, etc. I think $6 still is well within the range of what I would call "success"

  2. There are a lot of potential oddities around different prices in different places/subsidies/etc that could happen. I reserve the right to make a judgment call in those cases. I will not trade on this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ164
2Ṁ84
3Ṁ41
4Ṁ5
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy