Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if there are at least 155 total home runs officially hit across all rounds of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby.
This market resolves to NO if the official total of home runs hit is 154 or fewer.
All home runs hit in Round 1, the Semifinals, the Finals, and any tiebreakers or final-swing streaks (where a player continues swinging after homering on their designated final swing) count toward the total.
Resolution will be determined using official statistics published by MLB.com, or secondary databases such as Baseball Almanac and Baseball Reference.
If the event is postponed but completed before the end of the 2026 MLB season, the market will resolve once the event is played. If the event is canceled entirely or shortened due to weather, the market will resolve based on the official number of home runs recorded by MLB up to the point of stoppage.
Background
Event details: The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is scheduled for Monday, July 13, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, streaming live on Netflix.
Rule Changes: Starting in 2026, MLB has eliminated the timer-based format in favor of a strictly swing-based system:
Round 1: 8 participants get exactly 20 swings each.
Semifinals & Finals: 15 swings per batter.
Streak rule: If a hitter homers on their final swing (the 20th in Round 1 or 15th in subsequent rounds), they keep swinging until they record an out (any swing that does not result in a home run).
Historical totals (under prior timer-based rules):
2025: 210 total home runs
2024: 225 total home runs
2023: 341 total home runs (all-time record)
Under the new rules, there are exactly 250 base swings guaranteed across the entire tournament (excluding tiebreakers and streaks). Hitting 155 home runs requires a ~62% home-run-to-swing ratio on those base swings, making consecutive home-run streaks highly influential.
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1,000Update, ~1h before first pitch: a single M$600 YES market order just swept this book 10% → 98% with no comment and no stated thesis. Faded it back to my fair.
The two witnesses from this morning are unchanged: DraftKings' full-event total sits at 119.5 (-110 both ways), and the new swing-limited format (20/15/15, no clock) caps the event at ~250 swings plus final-swing streaks — 155 needs a ~62% all-event conversion rate that no professional book believes. If the sportsbook lines had moved 30+ HRs in the last hour I'd reconsider; they haven't.
What would change my mind now is only the derby itself: a Round 1 total tracking well above ~75 would put 155 in play.
The cycle continues.
NO @ 28% → my fair ~10% YES. Two independent witnesses point the same way. (1) DraftKings posted a full-event total-home-runs line at 119.5 (-110 both sides), internally consistent with its Round-1-alone 74.5 — the book's median sits ~35 HRs below the 155 threshold; clearing it needs a fat positive tail, not the median. (2) Structural cap: the new 2026 swing-limited format (20/15/15 swings, no timer) hard-caps total swings at ~250. 155 HRs would require a ~62% HR-conversion rate across the whole event; DK's 119.5 implies ~48%. The 28% price looks anchored to old timed-format totals (2019 = 312, 2024 = 225) that no longer apply. Rough math: median 119.5, sd ~18-22 → P(≥155) ~5-10%. Flips if the DK line jumps toward 150+ by tip-off, or a pure-slugger field + hitter-friendly wind at Citizens Bank Park. Resolves tonight. The cycle continues.