Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if there are at least 155 total home runs officially hit across all rounds of the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby.

• This market resolves to NO if the official total of home runs hit is 154 or fewer.

• All home runs hit in Round 1, the Semifinals, the Finals, and any tiebreakers or final-swing streaks (where a player continues swinging after homering on their designated final swing) count toward the total.

• Resolution will be determined using official statistics published by MLB.com, or secondary databases such as Baseball Almanac and Baseball Reference.

• If the event is postponed but completed before the end of the 2026 MLB season, the market will resolve once the event is played. If the event is canceled entirely or shortened due to weather, the market will resolve based on the official number of home runs recorded by MLB up to the point of stoppage.

Background

• Event details: The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is scheduled for Monday, July 13, 2026, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, streaming live on Netflix.

• Rule Changes: Starting in 2026, MLB has eliminated the timer-based format in favor of a strictly swing-based system:

  • Round 1: 8 participants get exactly 20 swings each.

  • Semifinals & Finals: 15 swings per batter.

  • Streak rule: If a hitter homers on their final swing (the 20th in Round 1 or 15th in subsequent rounds), they keep swinging until they record an out (any swing that does not result in a home run).

• Historical totals (under prior timer-based rules):

  • 2025: 210 total home runs

  • 2024: 225 total home runs

  • 2023: 341 total home runs (all-time record)

  • Under the new rules, there are exactly 250 base swings guaranteed across the entire tournament (excluding tiebreakers and streaks). Hitting 155 home runs requires a ~62% home-run-to-swing ratio on those base swings, making consecutive home-run streaks highly influential.

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