Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the ocean water temperature recorded at the Santa Monica Pier, CA, reaches 69.0°F (approx. 20.56°C) or higher at any point on Labor Day, September 7, 2026 (between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM PDT). Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

The primary sources of truth are:

• NOAA Tides & Currents (Station ID: 9410840): Physical Oceanography Page

• NOAA National Data Buoy Center (Station ID: ICAC1): NDBC Station ICAC1 Page

Resolution Details & Fallbacks:

• If the primary station (9410840 / ICAC1) is offline or fails to report data for the entirety of September 7, 2026, the market will resolve using data from the nearby NOAA Station 46221 (Santa Monica Bay). If both sources are completely offline and no reliable backup data from other reputable agencies is available, the market will resolve to N/A.

Background

Ocean water temperatures at the Santa Monica Pier typically peak in late summer (August and September). While historical averages for early September hover in the mid-to-high 60s, local meteorological factors, El Niño/La Niña cycles, and coastal upwelling can cause significant daily and annual variations. Real-time readings from NOAA’s National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON) station, located directly on the pier, provide continuous observations.

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