Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, during any single standard trading session from the time of market creation through November 12, 2026, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closes at least 1,000.00 points higher or at least 1,000.00 points lower than its close from the immediately preceding trading session.

Otherwise, if no such trading session occurs by the end of the regular trading day on November 12, 2026, this market will resolve to NO.

• Source of Truth: The official daily closing price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) as reported on Yahoo Finance or Bloomberg.

• Formula: Resolution is determined by the absolute difference between the closing price of day $t$ and the closing price of day $t-1$: $$|\text{Close}{t} - \text{Close}{t-1}| \ge 1,000.00$$

• Scope: Only official daily closing values are considered. Intraday price movements that do not hold through the market close do not qualify. Only regular trading sessions on major U.S. exchanges apply.

Background

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted stock market index tracking 30 prominent blue-chip companies in the United States. Historically, single-day point swings of 1,000 points or more were highly unusual and reserved for moments of extreme market stress or massive relief rallies (such as during the financial crises of 2008 or the COVID-19 crash in early 2020).

However, because the DJIA is a price-weighted index, point fluctuations scale with the nominal price of the index itself. With the Dow trading at higher historic levels, a 1,000-point daily move represents a change of roughly 2% or less, making such moves more common during periods of moderate macroeconomic volatility.

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