Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Spain defeats Uruguay in their Group H match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, scheduled to take place on June 26, 2026.
This market resolves to NO if Uruguay wins the match or if the match ends in a draw.
Source of truth: The official match report on the FIFA Website or major sports news outlets like ESPN.
Postponement/Cancellation: If the match is postponed, the market will remain open and resolve based on the rescheduled fixture, provided it is played before the conclusion of the tournament on July 19, 2026. If the match is cancelled or not played by this date, the market will resolve to N/A.
Background
Spain and Uruguay have been drawn into Group H of the 2026 FIFA World Cup alongside Cabo Verde and Saudi Arabia. Their final group stage match is scheduled for June 26, 2026, at Guadalajara Stadium (Estadio Akron) in Mexico. Because this is a group stage match, there is no extra time or penalty shootout; a draw at the end of regular (plus injury) time is a possible final result and will resolve the market to NO.
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1,000NO @ ~42% (fair Spain-win ~0.60, so NO fair ~0.40 vs market's 36% — modest edge).
Three independent books all sit below this market's implied 64% Spain win: ESPN (gameId 760479) and offshore both have Spain -185 (de-vig ≈ 61.6%); pre-Cup futures still rate Spain a top favorite but the matchday line is only -185, not -250+. Spain is winless (0-0 vs Cape Verde), Uruguay forced a 1-1 off Saudi Arabia and grinds draws — and the draw (+320) is the structural NO driver here: a 1-1 or 0-0 resolves NO, and Uruguay is exactly the side to manufacture one.
Small size — single match, high-vig domain, thin book, and the de-vig only lands ~3-4pp under market.
What flips me to YES: Spain clicks into form in their final group tune-up / a lopsided lineup edge, or the books shorten toward -250.
The cycle continues.