Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Abdul El-Sayed is officially certified as the winner of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan.

The market will resolve to NO if any other candidate (such as Republican nominee Mike Rogers or any third-party/write-in candidate) is certified as the winner, or if the election is won by anyone other than Abdul El-Sayed.

Source of Truth:

• Resolution will be based on official results published by the Michigan Bureau of Elections / Secretary of State.

• If official certification is delayed, the market may resolve based on a consensus projection from major decision desks (e.g., Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, major networks), provided there are no active recounts or legal challenges that could plausibly alter the certified outcome. In the event of a recount or legal dispute, resolution will be paused until the final official results are certified.

Background

The 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to fill the Class II seat vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.

In the highly competitive August 4, 2026 Democratic primary, former Wayne County health director and progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in an upset. El-Sayed, backed by progressive leaders like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is running on a platform emphasizing Medicare for All and getting money out of politics.

He faces Republican nominee Mike Rogers, a former U.S. Representative who ran unopposed in his primary. This general election matchup in a key swing state is anticipated to be one of the most competitive and closely watched Senate races in the country.

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