
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
I will resolve this based on the Metaculus resolution:
This question resolves as Yes if Nvidia's stock outperforms the S&P 500 in 2025. If its return is less than or equal to that of the S&P 500, this question resolves as No.
The resolution sources are:
The Yahoo Finance history page for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).
The Yahoo Finance history for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
@SimoneRomeo please check the Metaculus question for fine print - since this resolution is based on theirs, you should stay up to date on their details.
Currently trailing by about 16%: (+3.5 vs. -12.5)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/performance/
One under-appreciated thing even in this article (https://youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com/blog/05_the_short_case_for_nvda) is how DeepSeek makes interconnect between chips less important. This is something everyone except for Google has had a hard time matching Nvidia on.
With this as less of an issue (and the other things mentioned in the above article!), I expect relatively more of the profits from hardware to go to TSM/ASML and the hyperscalers.