Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?
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From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

I will resolve this based on the Metaculus resolution:
This question resolves as Yes if Nvidia's stock outperforms the S&P 500 in 2025. If its return is less than or equal to that of the S&P 500, this question resolves as No.

The resolution sources are: 

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filled a Ṁ5 YES at 65% order

Are we tracking the S&P500 index or an S&P500 ETF, and if so, which one? Small difference but it would be important to clarify

@SimoneRomeo please check the Metaculus question for fine print - since this resolution is based on theirs, you should stay up to date on their details.

@WalterMartin we use spy then

Currently trailing by about 16%: (+3.5 vs. -12.5)

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/performance/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/performance/

One under-appreciated thing even in this article (https://youtubetranscriptoptimizer.com/blog/05_the_short_case_for_nvda) is how DeepSeek makes interconnect between chips less important. This is something everyone except for Google has had a hard time matching Nvidia on.

With this as less of an issue (and the other things mentioned in the above article!), I expect relatively more of the profits from hardware to go to TSM/ASML and the hyperscalers.

YTD:

NVDA 🔻10.5%

S&P 500 🔻0.5%

@MaxGhenis Manifold Markets: this is good for NVDA

filled a Ṁ50 NO at 49% order

Deepseek R1 made Nvidia tank 15%. Don't see any correction in price here so I'm buying NO

@Moneyfolded Still got 11 months left, let’s see what happens

Level of Tariffs on TSMC seems relevant given Nvidia's heavy use of their fabs.

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