Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?
Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?
113
10kṀ47k
2026
27%
chance

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources have reported both of the following:

  • Elon Musk no longer serves an advisory role to Donald Trump. This will be considered to be true if Elon Musk ceases to hold either a formal federal government position or an advisory position serving at an organization governed by the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) or any other officially recognized advisory organization. This includes if Elon Musk does not at any point attain such a position during the year 2025.

  • If Elon Musk ceases to hold an advisory position because he is becoming a full federal government employee, or vice versa, this will not be considered to have occurred. Musk must cease to be both a government employee and an advisor simultaneously. Transfers in status where Musk temporarily ceases to hold either role do not count.

  • Donald Trump has publicly criticized Elon Musk during a time while Musk is no longer serving on a government or advisory position. Public criticism will generally not be taken to include jokes, backhanded compliments, snide remarks, or other non-serious insults or veiled insults. To count, a criticism must unambiguously convey dislike or dissatisfaction with Musk.

Otherwise, the question will resolve as No.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
bought Ṁ1,500 YES1mo

https://nypost.com/2025/04/06/us-news/elon-musk-appears-to-break-with-trump-admin-on-tariffs-slams-peter-navarro/

Elon just attacked Trump's baby, and Trump isn't known for appreciating criticism.

bought Ṁ50 YES2mo
2mo

The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.

Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.

Users will be able to cashout or donate their entire sweepcash balance, regardless of whether it has been won in a sweepstakes or not, by March 28th (for amounts above our minimum threshold of $25).

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules