Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?
313
10kṀ300k
resolved Jun 6
Resolved
YES

From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources have reported both of the following:

  • Elon Musk no longer serves an advisory role to Donald Trump. This will be considered to be true if Elon Musk ceases to hold either a formal federal government position or an advisory position serving at an organization governed by the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) or any other officially recognized advisory organization. This includes if Elon Musk does not at any point attain such a position during the year 2025.

  • If Elon Musk ceases to hold an advisory position because he is becoming a full federal government employee, or vice versa, this will not be considered to have occurred. Musk must cease to be both a government employee and an advisor simultaneously. Transfers in status where Musk temporarily ceases to hold either role do not count.

  • Donald Trump has publicly criticized Elon Musk during a time while Musk is no longer serving on a government or advisory position. Public criticism will generally not be taken to include jokes, backhanded compliments, snide remarks, or other non-serious insults or veiled insults. To count, a criticism must unambiguously convey dislike or dissatisfaction with Musk.

Otherwise, the question will resolve as No.

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@traders, reminder for everyone that this market is resolved exclusively on the results of Metaculus market resolution. I agree that their market should resolve yes, but until it does, this one will stay unresolved.

@WalterMartin OK, now it can resolve :)

@mods pls

@mattparlmer "Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution"

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

“he just went CRAZY!” may qualify as public criticism that is clearly/straightforwardly an insult

@ChelseaSierraVoss Yeah, this should definitely resolve now

sold Ṁ2,127 YES

Knew from the start this was a match made in hell

Should resolve yes.

They're going back and forth with each other, this should resolve now

bought Ṁ200 YES

bought Ṁ20 YES

Yikes

@SvenHoek I figured this would happen pretty soon. Now we'll see if Trump responds.

bought Ṁ1 NO

This market's way too high

Elon Musk 'disappointed' by Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful' tax bill
I expect Trump to retaliate soon, probably with something about how DOGE didn't accomplish what Elon promised.

bought Ṁ500 YES

Huge gap between us and metaculus.

bought Ṁ750 NO

@JimAusman on ACX Metaculus, the user’s last prediction before Feb 1 is locked in, so any other prediction after that date does not count towards your score. In other words, for most forecasters, there is zero incentive to update their forecast hence the flat line.

@JimAusmanBlock Blast

With metaculus it might be the best thing.

bought Ṁ1,500 YES

https://nypost.com/2025/04/06/us-news/elon-musk-appears-to-break-with-trump-admin-on-tariffs-slams-peter-navarro/

Elon just attacked Trump's baby, and Trump isn't known for appreciating criticism.

bought Ṁ50 YES

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