From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
I will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, after the launch of this question and before January 1, 2026, an episode of the Joe Rogan Experience is published in which one of the guests is a member of the rationality movement, a member of the effective altruism movement, or an AI safety researcher.
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@JamieWahls Looking at the criteria:
> A person will be considered to be part of the rationality or effective altruism movements if they actively participate in it (by regularly posting on LessWrong or working for an EA organisation). Self-identification on its own will not resolve this question as Yes. In cases of ambiguity, the resolution of this question will be determined by a resolution council consisting of two Metaculus admins and Scott Alexander.
She doesn't work for an EA organisation. She does post on LessWrong but somewhat sparsely:
https://www.lesswrong.com/users/aella
So I think if Aella went on JRE this would go to a resolution council but then probably resolve positively, as I'm inclined to expect Scott Alexander would count Aella to be a rationalist and convince Metaculus staff of that.
@CharlesFoster per Gladstone AI's website: "Jeremie Harris is the CEO and co-founder of Gladstone AI. He is an experienced AI startup founder with deep technical expertise in AI safety and security, who has co-founded and sold companies backed by top Silicon Valley investors. [...] Jeremie led Gladstone’s work developing the Survey of AI Technologies and AI R&D Trajectories, and contributed to the Action Plan as a domain expert in both AI national security and technical AI safety." Looks like it's a Yes, once Metaculus resolves.
@bens I have not. Peter Wildeford on Metaculus has suggested that this resolves positively however, and I suppose his opinion carries some weight.
From the resolution criteria:
> A person will be considered an AI safety researcher if their primary job is or was at any point technical work in AI safety.
It's not clear to me that Jeremie Harris's primary job is technical work in AI safety.
Gladstone's work appears to be AI policy as opposed to technical safety research; and Jeremie's role as CEO is surely not "primarily" about technical research even if the organisation does some technical research?
Looking at linkedin he also doesn't appear to have held a role prior to this that was "primarily technical AI safety work".
Disclosure: I have a forecast below the community aggregate on this on Metaculus, so I've a vested interest in no.
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