Will ECOWAS militarily intervene in the Niger coup by the end of August 2023?
resolved Sep 1

ECOWAS have threatened to intervene, including use of 'force', if their demands to (roughly) return to the status quo are not met. They are now implementing economic and other non-military sanctions.

If ECOWAS does intervene militarily, this market will still resolve yes if only one state's military is actually involved (as with Gambia in 2017, with Senegalese troops).

If a country intervenes militarily without the explicit and formal support of ECOWAS it does not count.

From comment answer below:

Military presence/engagement/conflict in Niger within resolution time = YES

Statement of intent/plans/more specific military threats, even if 99% certainty it will happen = NO

To add:

YES: special forces in NIGER, landing military aircraft in NIGER (unless just to facilitate talks or supervise a subsequent election), drones using weapons

NO: cyberwarfare, manned/unmanned flying over NIGER airspace without using weapons

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predicted NO

@WXTJ could you resolve this pls :)

bought Ṁ14 of YES

I'm sorry if I'm spamming this place too much, however, as the 3rd biggest holder of yes, I'm preferring to explain my thought process for selling right now. After listening to one of the best analysts for the Sahel and West Africa region that I know of (sadly, the interview about this was in niche language of my country, hence I don't believe I could share it here and have anyone find it usable.) it seems to me like whist intervention still seems more likely than even 30%, the chance of intervention starting before the end of the month, barring some great risk of escalation, is extremally low. Hence, deciding to sell.

predicted YES

Seems like Nigerien forces are now engaging in a blockade of French embassy after France refused to listen to demand that Junta has given, demand being removal of French ambassador from the country.

Casus Belli on X: "Niger forces seems to be deployed in front of the entry of French base in Niamey airport now. Looks like they're blocking it." / X (twitter.com)

We don't exactly know why, or what for (are they doing it to protect the embassy, or to cut it off.) but nonetheless, interesting.

predicted YES

@LeonardoKr link doesn't work

predicted NO

@ElliotDavies not sure how reliable a news source tass is anyways

predicted YES

Today Niger has expelled French ambassador, but France is refuses to follow the command that was given, as it views Nigerian junta as an illegitimate government, seems like quite an escalation from current Nigerian gov.

It's also possible they have expelled a bunch of other ambassadors, Germany, US, Ivory Coast, Nigerian, but that seems in a limbo, some sources say that they did (AFP among others), other claim that it was fake, and just French one is real.

bought Ṁ17 of YES

@Betrayer Update: AFP issued a correction about the German, US, Nigerian, and Ivory Coast ambassadors, though that news was shared first by one of Junta members, only after it was denied by Foreign Ministry of Niger, however, there is also other update, as Junta has ordered troops to be on maximum alert.

Niger orders troops to go on 'maximum alert' | Reuters

bought Ṁ300 of NO
predicted YES


More or less. Until recently the African Union had not made a clear statement. However, 3 days ago the African Union suspended Niger's membership and finally announced its support for ECOWAS sanctions.

Some key points:

▪️ Unequivocally condemns the coup, calls for the restoration of constitutional order and demands the immediate release of deposed President Bazoum.

▪️ Take note of ECOWAS's decision to activate its reserve force, without supporting or rejecting it, and ask the AU commission for a report on the possible implications of a military intervention.

▪️ Supports the punitive sanctions approved by ECOWAS.

▪️ Firmly rejects any external interference by any actor or country outside the continent, including private military companies.

▪️ Urges the military to immediately and unconditionally return to their barracks and return power to the civil authorities of Niger.

bought Ṁ24 of NO

ABUJA, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Nigeria's former military president, Abdulsalami Abubakar, who led a mission from West African regional bloc ECOWAS to Niger to negotiate with its coup leaders over the weekend, said on Tuesday that the visit was "very fruitful" and that he had hope the crisis could be solved through diplomacy.

predicted NO

@PeterBuyukliev lol, I'm sure the coup instigators just need to have tea with the Nigerians a few more times and they will capitulate. It's clear ECOWAS doesn't have the wherewithal to follow up on their threats. I don't have a count of how many member states have precarious governments themselves that may not survive what could become a regional war.

predicted NO

The response to this by all parties is a cock-up. The French are "frustrated" over the US not declaring the whole affair a coup (though funny how some unarmed guy dressed in a horned helmet pushing his way into the Capitol constituted an "insurrection"):


predicted NO

@qumeric "D" day...does that stand for "dither" day?


seems to be lots of confusion surrounding this...the AU, US, and legislators are against an intervention but the ECOWAS countries' executive and defense branches seem to be in favor with most of them willing to supply troops...at the end of the day I think 20% is undervalued, is France really going to let their uranium supply fall into the hands of the anti-French junta?

predicted NO

@such for me it's about timing. Why should they rush? Why not extract concessions first?

predicted YES

im not sure how long THIS will take but this seems big

predicted YES

never underestimate the west's ability to pressure countries into doing what they want

bought Ṁ300 of YES

@ShadowyZephyr that's one reading.

the US hasn't even publicly come out in favor of an ECOWAS intervention, as far as I've seen. it's been Nigeria and other democratic countries trying to prevent more coups who are deploying all the political and military pressure.

predicted YES

@SemioticRivalry I'm talking about france in this case. although the USA does interfere in other countries.

sold Ṁ345 of YES

@ShadowyZephyr i mean it's pretty unfalsifiable but I don't believe it best matches the available evidence.

predicted YES

@ItzNetwork Very funny timing, but I still think I'm right here lol.

predicted YES

@SemioticRivalry France definitely got involved.

They (sort of) neocolonized Niger, of course they want to protect their interests.

predicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr I believe that they support the ECOWAS action, but I don't believe that they are a major reason why it's happening.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@ItzNetwork I'm pressing "X" to doubt