ECOWAS have threatened to intervene, including use of 'force', if their demands to (roughly) return to the status quo are not met. They are now implementing economic and other non-military sanctions.

If ECOWAS does intervene militarily, this market will still resolve yes if only one state's military is actually involved (as with Gambia in 2017, with Senegalese troops).

If a country intervenes militarily without the explicit and formal support of ECOWAS it does not count.

From comment answer below:

Military presence/engagement/conflict in Niger within resolution time = YES

Statement of intent/plans/more specific military threats, even if 99% certainty it will happen = NO

To add:

YES: special forces in NIGER, landing military aircraft in NIGER (unless just to facilitate talks or supervise a subsequent election), drones using weapons

NO: cyberwarfare, manned/unmanned flying over NIGER airspace without using weapons