Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the primary outcome of the trapped Hamas fighters situation in Rafah by December 1, 2025. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Times of Israel, etc.) documenting which outcome has occurred:

• Safe passage agreement reached: A formal or de facto agreement allowing fighters to leave Israeli-controlled areas with or without weapons surrendered

• Significant number of fighters surrenders to Israel: Documented surrender of a material portion (roughly 25%+) of the estimated 150-200 trapped fighters

• Israel conducts major military operation: Large-scale IDF operation targeting the tunnel complex with significant casualties

• Situation remains in stalemate: No major developments; fighters remain trapped with no resolution

If multiple outcomes occur simultaneously (e.g., partial surrenders alongside military operations), the market resolves to the most significant outcome.

Background

Approximately 200 Hamas gunmen are located in tunnels underneath IDF-controlled parts of southern Gaza, especially in Rafah, and are unable to retreat to Hamas-controlled areas without emerging from their tunnels and being spotted by Israeli troops. The group's military wing said on November 9, 2025, that mediators have been urged to resolve the crisis, which threatens the month-old ceasefire.

The United States has pressured Israel to allow 100 to 200 Hamas operatives holed up in a tunnel network on the Israeli-controlled side of the Yellow Line in southern Gaza's Rafah to leave safely, with fighters to surrender their weapons to officials from the US-led Civil-Military Coordination Center in Kiryat Gat and either be granted safe passage to a third country or be allowed to retreat to Hamas-controlled areas west of the Yellow Line. Following reports that Israel was considering granting terrorists hiding in tunnels safe passage, a statement attributed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said the premier "is not allowing safe passage for 200 Hamas terrorists."

Hamas fighters hiding in the Israeli-controlled Rafah area of Gaza have refused to surrender to Israel. Egyptian mediators have suggested that fighters remaining in Rafah surrender their weapons to Egypt in exchange for safe passage and information about tunnels there so they can be dismantled.

Considerations

Concerns persist over potential suicide attacks by isolated Hamas fighters, threatening the fragile ceasefire, with fears that trapped fighters, many of whom had not been in contact with their commanders in months, would stage attacks on Israeli soldiers. The Hamas fighters in Rafah, which the group's armed wing has said have been out of contact since March, might be unaware a ceasefire was in place.

• Update 2025-11-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Small-scale incidents with limited casualties (e.g., a few fighters killed in isolated strikes) will be considered part of an ongoing stalemate rather than a "major military operation," as long as the overwhelming majority of the trapped fighters remain in the same position.

• Update 2025-11-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is reconsidering how to classify ongoing small-scale incidents where trapped fighters are killed or captured as they emerge from tunnels (approximately 20-30 killed or captured so far over multiple incidents). The creator now believes this pattern may resolve as "Other" rather than "stalemate" - describing it as classic siege warfare where fighters are gradually killed or captured without a major military operation, but also not a true stalemate since the situation is progressing.

• Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the current pattern of small-scale incidents continues (where trapped fighters are gradually killed or captured as they emerge from tunnels, with approximately 20-30 killed or captured so far), the market will resolve to Other rather than stalemate or major military operation. This represents classic siege warfare where fighters are gradually eliminated without a major military operation, but is not a true stalemate since the situation is progressing.