Ceasefire for at least one week in April 2026.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if there is a documented ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon that remains in effect for at least seven consecutive days during the month of April 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Resolution will be based on reports from reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirming the existence of the ceasefire and verifying that it remained in place for at least one full week. In the event of conflicting reports regarding the status or duration of a ceasefire, this market will resolve based on the consensus of major international reporting bodies.

Background

As of April 15, 2026, the security situation involving Lebanon remains volatile. This market specifically tracks the implementation of a formal, sustained cessation of hostilities for at least one week within the designated month. Traders should monitor official statements from the involved parties, the United Nations, and major news organizations for confirmation of any ceasefire agreements.

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• Update 2026-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified the resolution criteria as follows:

  • A ceasefire must be declared

  • The ceasefire must last one week without major headlines declaring it broken (e.g., "ceasefire broken, doing war again")

  • Minor/isolated attacks during the ceasefire period do not count as breaking it